{"id":462049,"date":"2023-03-10T16:31:42","date_gmt":"2023-03-10T21:31:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.investmentexecutive.com\/?p=462049"},"modified":"2023-03-10T16:31:42","modified_gmt":"2023-03-10T21:31:42","slug":"fitch-boosts-global-gdp-forecast","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmentexecutive.com\/news\/research-and-markets\/fitch-boosts-global-gdp-forecast\/","title":{"rendered":"Fitch boosts global GDP forecast"},"content":{"rendered":"

The global economic outlook for this year has perked up, but tighter financial conditions will weigh more heavily in 2024, says Fitch Ratings.<\/p>\n

In its latest forecast, the rating agency revised its global GDP growth call to 2.0% for 2023, up from its previous projection of just 1.4% growth.<\/p>\n

The brighter forecast comes amid a rosier outlook for China, revised up to 5.2% from 4.1%, an increase in its U.S. call to 1.0% from 0.2%, and a revised Eurozone growth forecast, up to 0.8% from 0.2%.<\/p>\n

“The improvement in the near-term outlook reflects China\u2019s post-Covid-19 reopening, a material easing of the European natural gas crisis, and surprising near-term resilience in U.S. consumer demand,” Fitch said, noting that this marks its first forecast upgrade since Russia invaded Ukraine last year.<\/p>\n

However, it’s not all good news, with Fitch also trimming its global forecast for 2024 to 2.4% from 2.7%, citing the lagging effects of tighter monetary policy, particularly in the U.S. and Europe.<\/p>\n

\u201cCentral banks are now taking away the punchbowl quite quickly. It is only a matter of time before the impact on the real economy becomes much more visible,\u201d said Brian Coulton, chief economist with Fitch, in a release.<\/p>\n

On the rate front, the rating agency said that it now expects the Fed Funds rate to peak at 5.5%, up from its previous call of 5.0%; and the European Central Bank’s key rate to reach 4.0% in June, an upward revision of 100 basis points from its previous forecast.<\/p>\n

While it’s taking longer than expected for the effects of these rate rises to curb demand, Fitch still expects a recession in the U.S. by the third quarter of this year, “several months later than in our previous forecast and a few months after the peak in Fed Funds.”<\/p>\n

Fitch noted that while it looks as though headline inflation has peaked, core inflation remains “stubbornly high,” and sources of possible wage inflation have not eased.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Rating agency sees brighter 2023 for China, U.S., Europe, but\u00a0trims its 2024 outlook<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":147314,"featured_media":458572,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[2313,2312],"tags":[2395,2446,3807,2321,2426,2800,104411],"yst_prominent_words":[2142,102376,58151,42220,31598,21680,14635,13147,11141,11022,10886,8678,7101,5076,5073,5065,4878,2171,1695],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentexecutive.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/462049"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentexecutive.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentexecutive.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentexecutive.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/147314"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentexecutive.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=462049"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentexecutive.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/462049\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":462073,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentexecutive.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/462049\/revisions\/462073"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentexecutive.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/458572"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentexecutive.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=462049"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentexecutive.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=462049"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentexecutive.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=462049"},{"taxonomy":"yst_prominent_words","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentexecutive.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/yst_prominent_words?post=462049"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}