Although Canada’s 10 provinces and three territories have different economic drivers, economists’ consensus for 2010 is that all are on the rebound from the Great Recession of 2008-09.
Strengthening natural resources prices will help fuel growth in Alberta, British Columbia, Saskatchewan, Newfoundland and Labrador and the three northern territories of Nunavut, the Yukon and the Northwest Territories.
B.C. and the territories will be more dependent on the mining of base metals, precious metals and, in the case of the N.W.T., diamonds for recovery. Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland and Labrador will be hitching their wagons to increased oil and natural gas prices.
As for the traditional powerhouses of Ontario and Quebec, which have the highest annual deficits and net debts of all provinces, both will see more moderate growth in 2010.
Ontario, which became a “have-not” province for the first time in its history last year, is dealing with a battered North American automobile industry and a moribund manufacturing sector. But it is counting on services-related businesses, such as financial services, real estate, health care and education, to pick up the slack.
And although Quebec managed to stay resilient throughout the recession, it probably will have to deal with a decline in its aerospace manufacturing industry this year. That said, Quebec is also counting on services-related businesses, such as construction and real estate, to lead its rebound. IE