There’s a common assumption that Canada’s stock market is always more volatile than Wall Street’s. But judging by the action of major stock indices, the assumption should be that this is the case only sometimes.

When you run stock price index numbers through the Bernhard price stability ratio, the S&P/TSX and S&P 500 composite indices are close. Sometimes, one is a little more stable; sometimes, one is a little less.

If you measure bull and bear markets since 1990, the result is the same. Sometimes, Canada’s stock market makes a larger move than seen in the U.S.; sometimes, less. (See table at right.)

This is surprising, given Canada’s economic foundation of cyclical resources industries.

However, one trend is evident: volatility in both markets has increased.

Wall Street’s price stability index, as registered by the S&P 500 composite index, was 0.208 at yearend 2012 vs 0.180 10 years earlier.

In contrast, the S&P/TSX composite index’s price stability improved: the stability index dropped to 0.210 at yearend 2012 vs 0.226 at yearend 2002.

There’s another way to measure volatility: by calculating by how much the year’s high price exceeds the low. This works best over five-year spans. The latest measure (to yearend 2012) shows the average annual high price of the S&P 500 composite index is 1.38 times the average low. It was 1.18 times in the preceding five-year period.

Comparable S&P/TSX composite index results are: 1.37 times for the five years ended 2012; and 1.21 for the preceding five years.

So, Canada’s stock market was both slightly more stable and slightly less stable than Wall Street over the past decade.

Resources industries are Canada’s wild cards, clustered in the energy and materials sectors of the S&P/TSX GICS subindex system. These stocks account for 41% of the S&P/TSX composite index. On Wall Street, by contrast, the same two sectors (out of 10) account for only 14% of the S&P 500 composite index.

Together with the financial sector, the resource indices account for 74% of the Canadian market. On Wall Street, the same trio of sectors weigh in at only 30%.

As the table shows, sometimes the S&P/TSX composite index’s major sectors enhance a market move; sometimes, they don’t.

This dominance of only three of the Canadian market’s 10 sectors creates the potential for extremes in stock price volatility. That’s why uncertainty about the resources bull market is stressful for investment strategists today.

The resources boom started in 1998-99, when these shares hit lows just as the great 1974-2000 tech-led bull market was peaking. But resources really started accelerating higher a few years later – energy in 2000; materials in 2003.

Energy topped out in 2008, multiplying by 6.4 times in value. At the start of the run, the energy sector stood at a ratio of 0.7 against the S&P/TSX composite index. At the end, it was 2.8 times the S&P/TSX composite index’s level.

Mining stocks have been most outrageous in their volatility. From 2003 to 2007, the TSX GICS diversified metals and mining subindex climbed by 597% vs an 80% rise by the S&P/TSX composite index and a 59% gain by the S&P 500 composite index in the same period.

In the 2007-09 crash, the metals subindex dropped by 75%; the S&P/TSX composite index, by 25%; and the S&P 500 composite index, by 43%. Metals’ recovery was sensational – up by 1,044% to the sector’s 2011 peak. This helped to lift the broad S&P/TSX composite index by 52%.

But Wall Street did even better, rising by 56%.

In sum, it’s a toss-up regarding which market’s outlook for the next bull and bear markets will be better: Canada’s or Wall Street’s.

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