You have to feel challenged if you have been watching from the sidelines as technology stocks rally – particularly when you consider the parabolic rise of Cupertino, Calif.-based Apple Inc. Having missed the rise, you probably have been looking for an opportunity to buy on a pullback. So, is now the time?
As with any pullback, analysts will raise issues that did not seem to be front and centre mere months ago – some even have merit.
Consider that Apple is a growth company trading at a forward multiple of 16 times 2013 earnings. That is only slightly higher than the market multiple, which seems reasonable and has been the basis for many reports suggesting that Apple could go higher.
However, Apple is a US$600-billion behemoth in its market capitalization. At some point, it will get caught by the laws of large numbers – one of which states that behemoths rarely trade at the market multiple. More often, when such companies reach the point at which they are considered their own asset class, the multiple contracts.
Add to that the recently announced dividend and share buyback. Regarding the latter, there aren’t many analysts who favour this strategy. Buybacks typically put a floor under the company, which is why they typically occur when companies are in trouble. It’s hard to see Apple in that light.
The dividend, on the other hand, becomes a new risk factor. That seems difficult to imagine; but when the company finally delivered on something everyone was asking for, its share price faltered. Maybe that was just coincidence. But when companies begin to pay dividends, the market expects to see higher dividends in subsequent years. Not raising the dividend in future years becomes a risk factor that can affect Apple’s price/earnings multiples.
There also are several analysts who think Apple is sitting on great quarter results and see this share-price pullback as a major buying opportunity. They may be right; but, even so, someone has to raise a flag about future product launches. Most notable is the expected TV set, which few believe will garner much action at its anticipated $2,000 price tag.
On the bullish side, this pullback simply may be technical in nature. It also could represent a shift among institutional investors to raise cash to diversify their technology portfolios.
On that point, I recall a speech last autumn in which I had talked about a revival in the tech space sponsored in part by the prospects of Menlo Park, Calif-based Facebook Inc.’s initial public offering. As investors get hyped up by IPO fever, all ships rise with the tide; and, just as typically, when the stars align, investors sell on the news.
In light of the impending Facebook IPO, you could make the case that large institutional investors are selling Apple – and maybe Mountain View, Calif.-based Google Inc. as well – to raise cash to buy Facebook shares and broaden their tech exposure. With so few retail investors involved in the Apple juggernaut, this abrupt sell-off has the look and feel of institutional herd mentality.
From my perspective, I see the pullback as an opportunity. Apple seems to have good support at US$575 a share, and you could make a case for “bull put spreads.” A bull put spread involves the sale of a higher-strike put hedged with the purchase of a lower-strike put. Look to sell a put with a strike price of about US$10 above the share price while hedging with a long put using a strike about US$15 below the current price of the stock at the time you are considering the position.
I would prefer to make this trade when Apple is below US$600 a share. It becomes infinitely more attractive at lower share prices. If the stock gets below US$550 before entering the trade, I would view that as the best opportunity to enter such a position with the greatest likelihood of success.IE
© 2012 Investment Executive. All rights reserved.