Finding growth in this economy is like finding the proverbial needle in a haystack.
So, given this difficult task, you should begin your search for growth by screening for sectors that move countercyclically to the economy, or by focusing on sectors in which there is a perceived change in sentiment. Then, if you find that elusive opportune sector, you can screen for stocks that benefit from positive activity within that particular area.
When we think about “countercyclical,” the materials sector comes to mind. Sprinkled within that broad category are gold and commodities. Names such as Barrick Gold Corp. and Goldcorp Inc. dominate the sector’s exposure to precious metals while fertilizer companies such as Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Co. and Agrium Inc. stand out in the commodities subgroup. The materials sector — and these stocks in particular — have defined countercyclical tendencies, with positive 2009 year-to-date numbers.
A sector that has not fared as well is energy. Oilsands producers have been running on empty, effectively shutting down operations in an effort to conserve cash. But within this sector, there are notable subgroups that are rekindling interest.
Of note is natural gas, for which there is continuing demand. A consumer shift toward cleaner-burning fuels, government incentives to encourage better delivery systems and more exploration have translated into some decent numbers for Enbridge Inc. and TransCanada Corp. Both companies are involved in the delivery of natural gas through a network of intercontinental pipelines.
Enbridge recently closed its books on its fiscal year ended Dec. 31, 2008, and reported a 6% year-over-year increase in fourth quarter earnings to $263 million. In addition, the company’s $12-billion growth program is still on track for both natural gas and crude oil.
TransCanada experienced similar fortunes as net income increased to $1.4 billion in the fiscal year ended Dec. 31, 2008, from $1.2 billion in 2007, with the increase related directly to the energy and pipelines business.
It did not hurt to hear positive comments from TransCanada CEO Hal Kvisle. “[The company’s] financial performance in 2008,” he says, “demonstrates our ability to generate significant earnings and cash flow even in these uncertain economic times.”
Of course, any CEO should be promoting his or her company with positive sound bites. But when you add a dividend increase to the bravado, it becomes all the more credible. TransCanada did just that as it increased its quarterly dividend by 6% to 38¢ a share from 36¢, effective with the April payment.
Finding a positive growth stock within a sector is one thing. But which stock is best suited to benefit from the continuing build-out of the natural gas infrastructure? Clearly, based on past performance, the markets have been favouring Enbridge. But as TransCanada is the company most interested in returning shareholder value through a dividend increase, you could make a case that Enbridge may have gotten ahead of itself.
The key to this story is recognizing that a shift in sentiment is occurring and is likely to continue. On that basis, natural gas is one of those plays that should continue to perform positively.
Having said that, stock selection within this sector should be based on fundamentals and, to a lesser extent, on past performance. In this case, given the disparity in past performance, you might want your clients to look at TransCanada, with its rich dividend — especially if you can buy the shares and write slightly out-of-the-money calls against the position.
For example, with TransCanada trading at $34.50 a share at the time of writing, your clients could buy the shares and write July 36 calls for 80¢. The five-month return, if exercised, would be 6.8% without factoring in the dividend. The return, if unchanged, is 2.4%, again without considering the dividend.
Enbridge is also a possibility within that sector. But if you are concerned that the stock may have gotten ahead of itself, you can consider hedging the position. If you own the stock, you can hedge with the sale of an in-the-money call or the outright purchase of a put.
If you do not own the stock but like the story, you might consider writing slightly out-of-the-money puts. For example, with Enbridge’s stock at $41.45, write the July 40 puts at $1.75 or better. If you end up buying the shares, your cost will be $40 strike price less the $1.75-a-share premium received for a net out-of-pocket cost of $38.25. This may be the right entry point for a stock that may have gotten ahead of itself. IE
Taking advantage of the best-performing stocks
Writing options on stocks that are outperforming the putrid market could give your clients a double win
- By: Richard Croft
- March 10, 2009 October 31, 2019
- 12:59