After being eclipsed by their non-dividend-paying counterparts for the past couple of years, dividend-paying stocks are back in favour with investors, judging by the way stock prices have moved.
In 2005, dividend-paying stocks in the S&P/TSX composite index gained 13.2%, while non-dividend paying stocks gained only 9.6%. Dividend-paying
stocks beat out even the income trusts now included in the index, which gained 12.6% last year.
A key factor in this changing trend was the number of dividend increases announced in 2005. The Toronto Stock Exchange reported 140 dividend increases last year — a record, considering the previous total high was 113 in 1995.
Rising dividends make stocks move, of course, because stock prices in the long run respond to higher payments and higher earnings. And the three-year market rally has been accompanied by a rise in the annual number of increases, from 53 in 2001, to 74 in 2002, to 101 in 2003, to 105 in 2004, and, finally, to 140 in 2005.
Few companies are able to boost their annual payment to shareholders for more than a few years. That reflects economic reality — the economy is cyclical and it is difficult for a business to generate strong growth for more than a few years. Doing it for 10 years, though, is exceptional.
But even the strongest of companies can miss a step. The notable dropout last year among companies showing consistent dividend growth was Toronto-based food processing and distribution company George Weston Ltd., which did not raise its payment. This broke a record of annual dividend increases that extended back more than a decade.
Meanwhile, Fortis Inc., the St. John’s-based utility and real estate group, claims it holds the current record. “Fortis has increased its annual dividend payment for 32 consecutive years, the longest record of any public corporation in Canada,” said Stan Marshall, president and CEO, in a Feb. 7 press release.
Beginning with the March 2006 quarterly dividend, Fortis’s annual payment becomes 64¢ per share. Adjusted for last year’s four-for-one stock split, the Fortis payment has risen from 42¢ in 1995.
Comparative gains by dividend-paying stocks vs the non-paying ones vary by corporate size. That’s because large companies tend to pay dividends, whereas small companies do not. Thus, dividend-paying stocks in the TSX’s large-cap index (the TSX 60) gained 20.8% in 2005, whereas non-dividend large-caps rose only 0.8%.
In the small-cap index, dividend-paying stocks gained 4.6%, much less than the 16.4% rise chalked up by non-dividend small-cap stocks. However, stocks in the TSX mid-cap index sided with the large-caps. Mid-cap dividend payers gained 13%, whereas the non-payers gained 4.5%.
These numbers indicate investor preference, but they do not answer an investor’s key question about dividend-paying stocks: which companies are likely to increase their payments?
In the past decade, the answer has been found most easily in the largest sector of the market, financial services, which totals 30% of the TSX index. Sharing leadership of financial-sector dividend growth are the banks and the Power Corp. of Canada group.
Royal Bank of Canada stands out for its three dividend increases in 2005 — surely a record for the banks. And since 1995, RBC has increased its dividend on 18 occasions; adjusted for stock splits, RBC’s payment has risen from 58¢ a share to $2.56 during that time.
Bank of Nova Scotia and National Bank of Canada each have increased their dividends 15 times since 1996. The BNS payment has risen from a split-adjusted 3¢ a share to $1.44; National Bank’s dividend has increased from 40¢ to $1.92. The junior in the bank group, Canadian Western Bank, has raised its payment 11 times since 1996, going from 5¢ to 48¢ a share.
For sheer frequency of dividend increases, the Power group takes the lead. Among its holdings, IGM Financial Inc. (formerly named Investors Group Inc.) has had 21 increases since 1995, with its payment rising from 16¢ per share to $1.38. Just shy are Great-West Lifeco Inc. and Power Financial Corp. , which have both raised their dividends 20 times since 1995. Meanwhile, the parent Power Corp.’s dividend has risen in nine of the past 10 years. During that time, the amount has increased from 17.5¢ per share to 67¢.
Even though insurance stocks are fairly new to the market — they started trading publicly in 1999-2001 after all of the major insurance companies demutualized — their dividends have been rising each and every year. The largest, Manulife Financial Corp. , has boosted its payment six times in five years. The dividend, which was first issued at 40¢ per share, now sits at $1.20.
@page_break@Elsewhere in the financial sector, AGF Management Ltd. has raised its payment every year since in 1997. Also coming up strongly in this sector is Home Capital Group Inc. , with seven successive annual dividend increases. The payment has risen from 3¢ per share to 20¢.
Utilities and pipelines also usually generate frequent dividend increases. The huge profit increases in the energy industry — the second-largest index sector, with a 29% weighting — are now being followed by dividend increases. But this has happened too recently to challenge for long-term consistency in dividend growth.
In addition to financial services and energy shares, food stocks and retailers also have provided steady dividend growth. Dairy processor and cheese producer Saputo Inc. has boosted its payment for six consecutive years. From 2000 to 2005, its payments have risen from 24¢ per share to 72¢. Gourmet coffee company Van Houtte Inc.’s dividend has risen every year except for one since 1996, from 8¢ per share to 30¢ during that time.
The accompanying table lists short-term dividend growth leaders. These companies increased their dividends in each of 2003, 2004 and 2005. This excludes two stocks that increased their payments only in 2004 and 2005, but with big percentage jumps — Petro-Canada (up 100%) and clothing retailer Reitmans (Canada) Ltd. (up 140%).
The challenge for investors is to determine which of these stocks may be capable of paying increasingly larger dividends in the next few years. Ensign Energy, Canadian Western Bank, Home Capital and Toromont Industries Ltd. have already done so in 2006. IE
Dividends back in favour
Three-year market rally accompanied by rise in dividend increases
- By: Carlyle Dunbar
- March 7, 2006 October 31, 2019
- 08:58