Now that we have been made safe from the Canadian Wheat Board, the long-gun registry and striking flight attendants, what can be expected after the Harper government makes good on its election promises?

It’s a good bet the Conservatives will prorogue Parliament after the Christmas break and come back in mid-winter with a throne speech and a new agenda.

The current theory making the rounds in Ottawa is that the Tories have been following the time-honoured dictum of “go negative early.” That is, you get the tough stuff (anything likely to offend someone somewhere) out of the way early in your term so voters will have time to forget before the next election (expected in 2015).

It makes sense. Just as it makes sense to make sure your hard-core supporters get enough red meat to ensure they don’t think you have “gone Ottawa” on them.

But now that the Tories will have delivered all of the things they have been promising for the past five years, coming up with an agenda that excites their core supporters might be a challenge.

With Canada winding down its military role around the world, the Tories won’t be able to wrap themselves in patriotic support for the troops.

And party members have been involved in just too much controversy — from whispers of kickbacks in Montreal to crass pork-barrelling in Muskoka — to continue playing the accountability and integrity cards.

Since the Tories took power in 2006, we have all known what the Tories have been against. But it has not been so clear what they support — beyond the troops, the flag, the monarchy, Arctic sovereignty and a strong economy.

By challenging the status quo all these years, the Tories have been able to campaign like they still were the Opposition. Voters have continued to blame the past government for what they thought was wrong with the country, and the Tories were still being seen as agents for change.

Now, the Tories are the status quo. That means they will become targets for the discontented.

Pollster Michael Adams once said the de-election process slowly begins as soon as a government takes office. That process seemed to be in suspension for the past five and a half years. Will it resume if the Tories can’t come up with a compelling new narrative?

Three of the four Opposition parties may be stumbling along without permanent leaders. But staffers in the Prime Minister’s Office might also be asking how the Tory majority government can retain control of its agenda.

No doubt, scenarios are being prepared in the event that the Tories aren’t able to make their self-imposed deadline of eliminating the deficit in 2014. The world economy — and, therefore, ours — will remain a wild card for some time.

It often has been said that in a majority government, the real Opposition is the provincial premiers. Both Quebec and Ontario are complaining about costs that will be downloaded to the provinces as a result of the Harper government’s omnibus crime bill.

How long will it take before a premier will start blaming the costs of the crime bill for reduced health coverage or higher university tuition?

The 10-year federal/provincial health accord will expire in 2014. Negotiations with the provinces will be a public issue soon. The federal government could very well be struggling with the deficit, health-care costs and the fallout from the crime bill all at the same time in 2014.

Then there is the U.S. Just a few months ago, it looked like Ottawa would be earning some political capital south of the border with the prospect of a joint border-security pact with the U.S. Such an agreement would have the effect of creating a thinner border.

The treaty will be signed soon. But the U.S. may have tainted that treaty already by reimposing Buy America rules on Canada, as well as charging Canadians $5.50 to enter its territory by air or rail. What would have been a victory could easily be interpreted as something that makes border passage more difficult.

The Tories’ Opposition will be anemic for some time. But the government’s honeymoon may end soon.  IE