THERE WAS A TIME, NOT TOO LONG ago, in Ottawa when strategy was shaped with the aim of communicating the policies of the government. Today, things have been turned upside down.

Since the Harper government came to power six years ago, policy has been shaped, bent, twisted and mangled to fit communications strategy deemed necessary to fight a never-ending election campaign against the Opposition.

For most of the past six years, this upside-down way of operating has worked for the Harper government. Thanks to the short memories of the voters and media alike, and the prolonged weakness of the Liberals, Harper’s government has been free to tell Canadians whatever is expedient from a marketing perspective.

If market research showed that most people thought crime was out of control despite a crime rate that was actually falling, then the government told Canadians there would be more prison cells. (Whether there ever will be is not important. The public will eventually forget what it wanted.)

No need to worry about consistency, either. The Harper government has been able to change course on a dime. Relations with China are a fine example: first, Ottawa wanted nothing to do with China because of its human rights record; now, Ottawa wants to sign an investment pact with China as that country’s influence on the Canadian economy continues to grow.

Cap-and-trade is another example: first, Ottawa was opposed; then, in favour (sort of).

Until Bev Oda’s infamous glass of $16 orange juice, nothing stuck to this government. It didn’t really matter what the Opposition’s message was.

But now that Parliament and its spin machine have come back for the autumn sitting, there are signs that things may not go so smoothly in the months ahead.

First, the proposed takeover of Calgary’s Nexen Inc. by China’s state-owned CNOOC Ltd. is looking like a major headache. Until the government blocked the takeover of Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan by Australia’s BHP Billiton Ltd. in 2010, the Harper government had been regarded as non-interventionist on foreign takeovers. Sure, the feds blocked the foreign takeover of the space division of British Columbia’s MacDonald Dettwiler and Associates Ltd. 2008; but most Canadians saw that deal as a U. S. raid on technology that Canadian taxpayers had paid for.

In the Nexen case, the business community is divided. And there are signs the government caucus may be as well. Both sides are expecting Ottawa to rule in their favour because of what has been said in the past and because of rules that are deliberately vague. So, the government will be under fire no matter what decision it makes.

In another example, the government pledged 11 months ago to bring Omar Khadr home from Guantanamo, then seemed to renege, then brought him home while explaining it was bowing to pressure from the U. S.

The Harper government may be able to turn the election of the Parti Québécois (PQ) to its advantage at the expense of the NDP. But Quebec will have to be handled with surgical precision.

But a winning strategy in Quebec could come at the expense of losses elsewhere. Perhaps this is why the prime minister said nothing about the PQ removing the Canadian flag from the National Assembly in Quebec City.

At this point, the government probably wishes it had changed channels this autumn with a throne speech on an updated agenda. But that would have meant prorogation – and that card has been played too often.

Even the invincible Tory spin machine seems to be sputtering. The government did such a bad job explaining its decisions to sever diplomatic ties with Iran and combine some embassies and consulates with Britain, respectively, it has been on the defensive ever since.

The Tories’ attempt during the first week back to cast NDP support of cap-and-trade as a stealth carbon tax was a dud.

Stephen Harper probably is quietly hoping Justin Trudeau can slide into the Liberal leadership and easily take attention away from Opposition Leader Thomas Mulcair so that a splintered opposition can restore the Tory fortunes.

That is exactly what might happen. Still, the Conservatives’ days of not having to explain or defend may be gone for good.

© 2012 Investment Executive. All rights reserved.