SPAULINE MAROIS, QUEBEC’S PARTI Québécois (PQ) premier, faces the choice this spring of setting her own election date or being forced into one. The Opposition parties have signalled that they will not support another PQ budget.

Marois was adept in leading her minority government in its first year, bringing down an early 2013-14 budget in November 2012, just two months into her mandate.

While all three opposition parties opposed that budget, it narrowly passed, partly because many of the leaderless Quebec Liberals stayed away that day.

Quebec usually presents its budget in early March, but Marois has proposed a late April budget. The prospects of that budget passing look dim: this past November, during a budget update, the Liberals and other opposition parties indicated they will not support future budgets. That’s because, after promising a return to a balanced budget in 2013-14, Finance Minister Nicolas Marceau admitted that slow growth and reduced tax revenue would mean a $2.5-billion deficit this year and a $1.75-billion shortfall in 2014-15.

Philippe Couillard, the new Liberal leader, says he is ready for an election. His party convention in March aims to turn the page on suspicions of Liberal corruption.

While the names of Liberal ministers and fundraisers have come up at Quebec’s Charbonneau Commission inquiry into corruption, Couillard says those named no longer hold influential positions.

But the PQ says the Liberals have not changed. And the PQ is countering Liberal arguments of PQ economic mismanagement by touting figures that show Quebec’s participation rate – people with jobs – has never been higher.

Still, the Liberals and Coalition Avenir Québec note that Quebec’s per capita income is the second-lowest in Canada, with only Prince Edward Island posting a lower level. And Quebec’s economic growth is about half the Canadian average.

This past autumn, the PQ managed to divert attention from the lagging economy with its contentious Charter of Quebec Values. The charter would ban the wearing of religious signs in Quebec’s public sector, including hospitals and schools – a move that some say targets Islamic women wearing the hijab head covering.

Legislative hearings on the charter, now called Bill 60, will dominate Quebec’s political agenda in the spring. Marois appears to see the charter as a way to galvanize public opinion in favour of the PQ, propelling her party to a majority win. But the charter has proven to be divisive.

Three former PQ premiers have come out against it. And Maria Mourani, who personified efforts by the Bloc Québécois, the PQ’s allies in Ottawa, to recruit ethnic candidates, was expelled from the Bloc and now says Canadian federalism is the best defence of human rights in Quebec.

Marois will play for time, as the polls consistently show the Quebec Liberals ahead of the PQ.

Still, while the Liberals may be ahead in the polls, the PQ is the incumbent government and is generally the first choice among many French-speaking voters.

Barring some unforeseen change, the spring 2014 Quebec election is likely to return another PQ minority government.

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