An interesting thing happened in Ottawa after the summer recess that shows just how entrenched the government of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has become. It gave formal notice it is removing two important ethics watchdogs – without a ripple of controversy.
The terms of office for both Mary Dawson, the parliamentary ethics commissioner, and Karen Shepherd, the lobbying commissioner, ended June 30. A cabinet order dated the same day extended their terms for six months, but “on an interim basis.” In other words, they have been given their walking papers, which will take effect at the end of the year.
If the previous government had dumped two important ethics officers on the eve of a national holiday, there would have been hell to pay. But, in this case, apparently nobody has noticed.
The Trudeau Liberals are at such astronomical heights in the public opinion polls that there isn’t much point including numbers because they will be even higher by the time this column is published.
By normal standards, the government’s honeymoon with the voters should have ended months ago. But nothing has been normal with this government since it was elected nine months ago.
This is likely why former Conservative cabinet minister Jason Kenny has passed up the vacant helm of the federal Conservatives to run for leader of the Alberta Progressive Conservatives – probably conceding the 2019 federal election to the Liberals.
For one thing, the Liberals are not reverting to their time-honoured pattern of talking left but governing right. This is a left-wing government – inside out – which is what was promised in the election campaign last year, and exactly what most Canadians seem to want.
The Liberals have delivered on nine major promises that range from assisted dying legislation and an improved Canada Pension Plan to admitting 25,000 Syrian refugees and implementing tax cuts to the middle class without expending much political capital. And rolling out the Canada child tax benefit in time for family vacations didn’t hurt.
When a government wins big amid high expectations, there usually is a drop in the polls three months into the mandate because delivery on promises can’t come fast enough or promises simply aren’t kept. This situation certainly happened after Pierre Trudeau was elected in 1968. But in the case of Trudeau the Younger, he’s proved himself to an electorate accustomed to political disappointment. The honeymoon has morphed into kingship.
The Liberals took risks in their campaign platform that most governments wouldn’t take and are reaping big rewards as a result. But nothing is permanent in politics, and there is a downside to those risks. The Liberals have some challenges ahead that are sure to burn some of their political capital: including the promised legalization of marijuana, a new health accord or managing to get a pipeline built somewhere in Canada.
Electoral reform has already turned into a problem promise. The minister responsible has had a very rocky start. But, then again, that may not matter because we could be on the way to a two-party system.
In the past, keeping the New Democratic Party around was useful to Liberals and Conservatives alike. Disgruntled Liberals could park their votes there instead of voting Conservative. The Tories could benefit by the NDP splitting the vote.
Now, the Liberals appear to be doing a hostile takeover of the NDP’s franchise, which is why nobody is eager to lead the latter party. Future merger talk is likely to involve the NDP and the Greens.
Even history is on the Liberals’ side. No party that has won with a new leader has ever been denied a second term. Both the Conservatives and the NDP will remain in a funk until they have new leaders in 2017 and 2018, respectively.
Trudeau the Elder was prime minister for a total of 15 years, and even his supporters didn’t always like him. Just how long Justin, who is well liked, will be PM will be interesting to see.
One caution for the Liberals: the previous activist federal government, Brian Mulroney’s Conservatives, didn’t realize it had taken on too much until it started the long fall the party was unable to halt.
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