It’s a rare day when i find myself agreeing with Ontario Premier Dalton McGuinty. In late February, McGuinty caused a multi-province uproar with his comments on the dire effects of Canada’s soaring currency. Referring to the loonie as a “petrodollar,” McGuinty blamed its 50% run-up vs the U.S. dollar over the past decade for “knocking the wind out of Ontario exporters and manufacturers”; McGuinty would far rather have a low loonie.
Factually, there was little to dispute in his comments. But the premier has a knack for being right in the technical sense while blowing the big picture.
Whether a weak or strong currency is the path to prosperity has consumed schools of economic thought for centuries. Nothing I say here will change anyone’s opinion. So, instead, a couple of nuggets:
Would you rather be Switzerland or Greece? Has Switzerland’s strong, stable currency impoverished that nation? Is it beyond McGuinty’s imagination that our own currency’s strength is being driven by more than just commodities—including canada’s overall economic stability, competitive tax rates and strong banking sector?
In other words, these trends signal fundamental positives about our country. And they aren’t enriching only those greedy Albertans. A strong banking sector is greatly to Ontario’s benefit, as is Canada’s ability to attract investment capital. A strong dollar not only drives down the cost of imported materials used by manufacturers and exporters — from machinery to software — but effectively raises personal income, leaving individuals with more to spend, including on things made in Ontario.
Even leaving all that aside, McGuinty’s certainty that Ontario loses more from a high dollar than it gains is questionable. Spending by the oilsands sector is estimated to support about 35,000 permanent jobs in Ontario (plus almost 10,000 in Quebec) and to add at least $2 billion a year to Ontario’s gross domestic product. As a have-not province, Ontario now receives equalization payments of more than $3 billion a year, most of which is contributed by Alberta. Net transfers from Alberta to the rest of Canada are now more than $20 billion a year.
McGuinty’s lament reflects a mindset that Ontario’s manufacturers can compete in the U.S. only with a weak currency. This view continually seeks ways to keep the dollar low. Members of a much smaller school of thought have urged Ontario to take steps to thrive under a stronger currency over the longer term. Steps such as lower government spending, reduced taxation and keeping energy prices down by avoiding ideologically driven “green energy” subsidies.
I’ll never know what McGuinty really thinks, but he certainly sits in the former school. Even in his partial climb-down, McGuinty couldn’t say “oilsands” and “good” in the same sentence. Ontario’s premier appears to despise the oilsands and resent Alberta’s success.
I don’t reciprocate. I want Ontario to be strong, successful, prosperous and happy. I just don’t think mimicking the currency policies of banana republics is the way to get there.
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