Pondering a Trudeau government

In reality, it’s possible to connect some dots and plot out something similar to the governments of the previous two Liberal prime ministers – Jean Chrétien and Paul Martin – in that we would have a government that is socially liberal but conservative on fiscal and economic policy.

Socially, there’s no doubt where Trudeau stands. It has been a year since he called for full legalization of marijuana, which hasn’t hurt him despite the Conservatives’ best efforts to portray him as a pusher of dangerous drugs.

Actually, the Tories may have made things very easy for Trudeau on the marijuana file by dumping the onus on physicians to decide who should have medical marijuana, much in the way the government of Robert Borden straddled Prohibition by requiring a doctor’s prescription for alcohol consumption almost 100 years ago.

To most people, such a thing amounts to de facto legalization. Hence, the collective shrug by the Canadian public.

Since taking office, Stephen Harper has been dogged by periodic outbursts from the pro-lifers in his caucus and among the party’s rank and file. It would seem Trudeau has been watching and learning. The Liberal leader has unequivocally staked out his position as defender of women’s rights by making it clear no member of his caucus will vote against access to abortions.

Trudeau also has deftly positioned himself as the only Senate reformer still standing by kicking Liberal senators out of his caucus. (He probably did that to avoid future controversy. Some of the Liberal senators may be questioned about their residency in qualifying for membership in the Upper Chamber, as well as about their expenses.)

But with the Supreme Court of Canada quashing Harper’s plans for reforming the Senate, that has left Trudeau as the only winner so far in the whole sordid Senate saga.

So, on social issues, Trudeau, unencumbered by the baggage of governing – as Harper was in 2006 – stands out as the reformer. Trudeau is likely to work on keeping that label well into his tenure.

On fiscal and economic issues, it gets a little murky regarding where a Trudeau government would stand. But there are a couple of clues. For one, Trudeau has been defining himself as a Wilfrid Laurier Liberal since he first became interested in leading the Liberal Party. Laurier is remembered as a charismatic pragmatist who built a national economy through massive immigration and finishing Sir John A. Macdonald’s dream of a national railway system. Laurier also was bold enough to push for reciprocity with the U.S. twice, albeit unsuccessfully.

With the exception of reciprocity, as “free trade” then was known, Laurier was good at making Conservative policies his own, which suggests that economic policy in Canada under a Trudeau government won’t change much from the Conservative era.

This is probably why Trudeau was quick to travel to Alberta and disown the National Energy Program of his father.

The prospect of an economy under the stewardship of a Trudeau doesn’t seem to upset Bay Street this time.

Trudeau’s speeches outside Ottawa have given people a taste of what his priorities will be. He has outlined six core economic principles: education and training; infrastructure (both the roads and bridges and the digital kind); sustainable resources development; direct foreign investment; innovation; and free trade.

When we see a red book fleshing out those six areas, we will know the Liberals think the election will be theirs. Or Trudeau will come to Bay Street to make an economic policy speech. In the meantime, Trudeau’s major policy will be, as Brian Mulroney recently noted, not being Stephen Harper.

Regardless of when we know more about Trudeau’s policies, we can assume he will be the type of politician Canadians seem to like: left-leaning on social issues, conservative on economics.

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