Oliver needs to assert himself

The prime minister wants his new finance minister to have the same spunk the previous one did. Stephen Harper wants the new minister to calm financial markets by staying the course, plus continue to develop the Conservative brand in Toronto – as Flaherty did as the regional political minister.

And there is likely one more requirement the prime minister doesn’t really have to articulate: remain under the control of the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO).

Normally, the finance minister in any government has a large amount of freedom. This is one minister who needs to be seen as being in charge of the economy without political interference.

But independence from the PMO is a foreign concept with the Harper government. That’s why the cabinet has been reduced to little more than a focus group – with the exception, perhaps, of Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird. Had it not been for Flaherty’s swaggering and stubborn nature, the finance minister probably would have been like the rest of Harper’s ministers.

There may not have been much doubt about the independence of the first two Bank of Canada (BoC) governors in the Harper years, David Dodge and Mark Carney. But that was before Harper began calling out chief justices of the Supreme Court of Canada after rulings that were inconvenient to the government agenda. It also was before BoC governors were expected to sound like government ministers reading PMO talking points – as Stephen Poloz has lately.

So, if Oliver wants to have any independence as a finance minister under Harper, he had better start asserting himself now.

A main reason Oliver was named finance minister was to send a signal to financial markets that all was well in a “stay the course” mandate. Oliver probably has won Bay Street’s confidence already by, first of all, hiring Dan Nowlan, formerly co-head of equity capital markets at CIBC World Markets Inc., as his chief of staff. In addition, Oliver has hired former Flaherty aide Dan Miles to run his Toronto office.

Still, there is a risk that Oliver will be a victim of his predecessor’s success. With $45 billion in projected surpluses between 2015 and 2018, the political climate will have changed by the next budget. With extra cash in the till, it is going to be more difficult for a fiscal conservative to say no and keep Bay Street appeased at the same time.

Much of that money is earmarked for promises from the 2011 election, such as income splitting, which will benefit a limited demographic. The Harper government is likely to face demands for wider tax cuts, plus more federal support for the health-care system to handle the aging population.

If Harper’s Conservatives continue to slump in the polls, Oliver will be under pressure to loosen spending to buy back voter popularity, just as the Harper government was busy doling out grants to snowmobile clubs during the minority government years.

Start asserting yourself, Joe.

And while we are watching him, a 73-year-old veteran of Bay Street and Ottawa, move on to what will be the most important job of his political career, we also may be witnessing the end of the career of a once promising 34-year-old rookie, Pierre Poilievre, the minister of democratic reform.

The day before Poilievre was forced to water down his Fair Elections Act last month, he made a speech in one of the smaller rooms at Ottawa’s Chateau Laurier. Hotel staff had spaced out the tables to make the low attendance less obvious. (They didn’t succeed.) Half the 50 people who showed up were junior Conservative political aides and interns dispatched to put bums in seats. Prominent Conservatives were conspicuously absent.

When lunch was over, a sombre Poilievre slipped out a fire exit into the parking lot rather than walk through waiting TV cameras. Be nice to people on your way up. That is likely what Ottawa insiders will say in future years, when they discuss the volatile but short career of Pierre Poilievre.

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