The recent spurt of exceptional volatility is a sure signal that markets are becoming ever more alienated from their purpose as a mechanism to allocate capital and more of a venue for speculation and trading combat — something that most retail clients need no part of.
As the summer days are dwindling, markets have become particularly erratic. Some of this reflects the time of year. It’s not unusual for the indices to jump around a bit more when many market players are on vacation, and meaningful price moves can be generated on smaller volumes. And in this age of high-frequency traders and algorithmic trading, market momentum can be exacerbated more easily.
What’s harder to understand are the swings in sentiment that are supposedly underlying these outsized gyrations. From one day to the next, large market moves, both up and down, are being attributed to shifting views on the economic recovery.
But macro trends are difficult to discern with conviction when looking at economic data that’s produced quarter to quarter, let alone month to month or day by day.
Some of the underlying demographic trends that will ultimately dictate whether various countries can shore up their national accounts are decades in the making. The idea that economic sentiment can shift so dramatically from one day to the next is surely absurd. The problems posed by an aging population aren’t being created, and can hardly be solved, in a generation — let alone overnight. And yet, that’s how the markets have been behaving of late.
None of it makes much sense, which is why the average retail investor must ignore this noise as much as possible. That’s easier said than done when your life savings are on the line. And it’s getting harder than ever, given both the new extremes in market behaviour and the intensified focus of a media-saturated world. But it is necessary nevertheless.
These days, retail investors need a plan for their portfolio, professional help they can trust and the inner fortitude to tune out all the noise. Trying to navigate these markets alone as a small investor can only end in tears.
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