The Quebec leg of the May 2 federal election was billed as the third rerun of the 2004 election. The thinking went that the Bloc Québécois would win about 50 seats again, as it did in the 2004, 2006 and 2008 elections. And with the Liberals and the New Democrats also winning about the same number of seats as before, the Bloc would claim credit for halting a Conservative majority.

Instead, the Liberals collapsed, to third place behind the New Democratic Party, and Stephen Harper’s Conservatives won a majority. The Bloc won only four seats, losing party status in the House of Commons, and party leader Gilles Duceppe resigned.

Not long ago, Duceppe was rated in polls as Quebec’s hands-down, most popular politician. There was even talk of the charismatic Duceppe replacing Pauline Marois as Parti Québécois leader and premier-in-waiting. The polls showed that Duceppe would win by a bigger margin than Marois against the unpopular Liberal premier, Jean Charest.

Then came Ruth Ellen Brosseau, the best known of about 50 unknowns chosen as NDP candidates in Quebec ridings that the party had no realistic hope of winning.

And Jackomania. After NDP leader Jack Layton’s performance in the French-language leaders’ debate, the release of a photo of Layton holding a beer and wearing a vintage Montreal Canadiens sweater, and his notable appearance on a popular Quebec TV show, Quebecers suddenly decided they liked Layton better than Duceppe.

Brosseau and other NDP NOBs — Names On Ballot — candidates who did not even campaign, were elected on Layton’s coat-tails, as the party of Prairie socialism went from holding one Quebec seat to 58, meaning Quebec MPs now dominate Layton’s 102-seat caucus.

But provincial and federal politics in Quebec are always linked. In this federal election, Charest broke with his usual neutrality to say that the Bloc was not an option. By contrast, in the 2008 election, Charest sided with Quebec artists, stripped by the Harper government of a $45-million program for international travel. While the amount was relatively small, the issue became huge in Quebec, helping the Bloc. But Charest’s natural sympathies are with the Conservatives; his party’s members endorsed Tory candidates this time.

The NDP’s rise in Quebec can be partly credited to Thomas Mulcair, who turned to federal politics and the NDP after Charest fired him from cabinet following a dispute over the privatization of a park. Mulcair, now the MP for the Montreal riding of Outremont, said after the election that he would have “institutional” relations with Charest. But there could be friction between these two stubborn Irishmen.

Marois, for her part, will condemn the Harper government, saying it does not reflect Quebec values. She could also argue that in the face of a West-based federal majority government, Quebecers need the PQ.

Charest is in a more difficult position. Having good relations with Harper could actually hurt him, and he may have more to gain by affirming Quebec’s differences. So, in the end, Ruth Ellen may bring Charest and Mulcair closer together again. IE