A new window is opening for Premier Christy Clark and her British Columbia Liberals to catch opponents off guard by calling a snap election.

It’s only a brief opening because time isn’t on Clark’s side, even though she’s still riding high from her upset victory over several powerful cabinet ministers from Gordon Campbell’s troubled government during the leadership vote on Feb. 26.

That victory had marked a political comeback for Clark, who had been appointed education minister and deputy premier in an earlier Campbell government in 2001. Clark left politics in 2005, then did a stint as a radio talk-show host in Vancouver before running last year for the party leadership.

Clark is still seen by many as a relatively fresh face at a time when most B.C. Liberals are attempting to distance themselves from Campbell’s last government, which imploded after introducing the harmonized sales tax — despite election campaign promises to the contrary.

The rival New Democratic Party is quick to remind voters that Christy is merely a photocopy of Gordie. But now, a third party is about to enter the picture — the B.C. Conservative Party. Recently retired federal Tory member of Parliament John Cummins (Delta-East Richmond) is about to take over its leadership. This smart campaigner says he intends to capture the right side of what had been a long-term coalition of right/centre voters under Campbell.

If Cummins succeeds, this could easily split the B.C. Liberal coalition vote, allowing the NDP to take power. Historically, even a 5% swing in the popular vote has been enough to change a provincial government here. Cummins is strongly favoured to win the B.C. Conservative leadership vote on May 28 and has pledged to begin a B.C. “barnstorming” tour immediately. Clark would be wise to block the Cummins gambit by calling a quick election.

An early writ now also will catch the NDP offguard: the party elected its leader, Adrian Dix, only in April. By law, the next B.C. general election is set for the spring of 2013. But Clark was poised to capture the seat she needs in a May byelection for Vancouver-Point Grey, Campbell’s old riding.

Other factors are also at play. A provincial referendum on the HST is set for early summer. Many pundits suggest the tax will be ousted by voters: if so, that would add negative spin for the Liberals in a subsequent election campaign.

The B.C. teachers’ union contract expires on June 30; it’s likely that once that date is reached, this labour dispute will only turn uglier for the incumbent government

Nor is B.C.’s economy a Liberal ally. A recent report from Toronto-Dominion Bank says the province is losing momentum, with last year’s growth of 3.6% slowing to 2.6% this year and to 2.3% in 2012.

Finally, Clark remains in the honeymoon stage with many voters — but honeymoons seldom last long. Ultimately, the final decision rests with the lady herself. IE