Economic forecasts, one after another, give credence to the notion that a “quiet boom” has arrived in Edmonton and northern Alberta.

The long-expected confirmation that a $2.6-billon development by North West Upgrader Inc. of Calgary will be built just north of Edmonton — processing 34,000 barrels per day of bitumen oil — is only one in a series of good-news announcements.

Over the three phases of the project in Sturgeon Country, about 45 kilometres north of the city, big employment gains are anticipated — 600 engineering jobs, 8,000 construction jobs, 500 permanent jobs, and spinoff and support jobs throughout the province.

Many of those employees will locate to Greater Edmonton. In addition, the city’s economy will be backstopped by the supply, service and fabrication needs of the more than $10 billion worth of oilsands construction that is underway this year.

With multiple oilsands developments by Calgary-based companies ramping up — Imperial Oil Ltd.’s $8-billion Kearl Phase 1 mining development, Suncor Energy Inc.’s resumption of the $900-million Firebag Phase 3 project in situ and Devon Canada Corp.’s $1.2-billion Jackfish Phase 2 venture in situ — things are looking rosy.

BMO Capital Markets Inc. economist Robert Kavcic said in an economic forecast conference call this spring that Edmonton could expect a growth rate this year of about 3%, mostly on the strength of the energy sector and continuing government support for infrastructure projects. “One of the big strengths underlying growth,” he said, “is due to business investment.”

Bank of Montreal Alberta regional commercial vice president Bill Hogg said he observed increased confidence after touring Alberta cities and towns this spring: “Alberta small business owners’ optimism is tops in the country.”

Both concede that labour shortages are an issue, acknowledging that staged development and co-operation among big industry players in the resources sector will be key to managing the labour issue.

In early April, Edmonton Mayor Stephen Mandel gave his annual “state of the city” address, painting a rosy picture of a city buoyed by the province’s $500-million commitment for a new rapid-transit rail line with a route that will go from Edmonton’s downtown to points north, including the Northern Alberta Institute of Technology.

Other prognostications bode more good news for Edmonton. Real estate market guru and author Don Campbell was in town during April, declaring that Edmonton is in the top five in Canada for real estate investment. “With the recent announcement of the upgrader being built in the region, Edmonton is awakening from a two-year slump both economically and in the real estate market,” Campbell said. “The major transportation improvements seen across the city will have a major positive impact on housing prices, especially in neighbourhoods newly accessible from light rail transit and ring-road expansion.”

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. also is forecasting an upward trend for Edmonton home prices. This year’s housing prices are expected to rise marginally but then increase by 2.26% in 2012, to an average of $339,000, says CMHC. It looks like the “quiet boom” is getting ready to roar in Edmonton. IE