Right now, the Harper government probably is remembering the wisdom of the late Sir Harold Macmillan as it finds itself in a quagmire of the unexpected. When asked by a journalist what is most likely to blow a government off course, the former prime minister of England said: “Events, dear boy, events.’’

There’s been a confluence of tricky events since the House of Commons resumed sitting this winter that seem to have taken the swagger out of the Conservatives’ spring election step.

Most tricky is the proposed merger of TMX Group Inc., owner of the Toronto Stock Exchange, and London Stock Exchange PLC. That deal makes the ill-fated Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc. takeover by an Australian firm look easy.

First, Ottawa finds itself dealing with another angry province. Just as Saskatchewan made it clear it would not accept a ruling from Investment Canada supporting the Potash Corp. bid, Ontario appears to be drawing just as firm a line in the sand.

Ontario Finance Minister Dwight Duncan, who fears for the future of 300,000 jobs on Bay Street, is worried the TMX/LSE deal would affect “a strategic asset in a strategic industry.’’

Saskatchewan Premier Brad Wall had made a similar argument to save Potash Corp. from falling into Aussie hands because it was a “strategic resource.’’ We can assume Duncan is telling Ottawa in code that Ontario expects the same consideration as Saskatchewan.

Meanwhile, federal Industry Minister Tony Clement has announced that the proposed TMX/LSE merger will be reviewed under the provisions of the Investment Canada Act. But, really, Clement’s powers won’t matter much in this issue, just as they likely didn’t matter during the Potash Corp. affair.

For one thing, Ontario has de facto control over this deal through the Ontario Securities Act. Ontario is Ottawa’s sole remaining provincial ally in the latter’s quest for a national securities regulator. The Harper government can hardly afford a squabble with Ontario over control of the TMX.

In chess terms, Ottawa is “forked’’ — whatever it does will cost it something.

As for the deal itself, there are a pile of reasons why this merger is already widely being written off as DOA. If the deal has any fans in the investment community, they have been making themselves scarce.

While the two exchanges have been trying to present the deal as a merger of equals, few are prepared to agree. One of the largest shareholders in the merged exchange would be the ruler of Dubai. The prospect of Middle East interests influencing capital markets in Ontario has Duncan — and probably a good part of the investment community — concerned.

Thanks to the excessive rhetoric of Government House Leader John Baird, the Harper government is on record as protecting “thousands of jobs’’ by preventing a few extra direct flights to the United Arab Emirates.

And as Harper’s Conservatives are pinning their hopes on increasing their ridings in Ontario, how willing would the federal government be to take a risk? Let’s see: Saskatchewan has 14 federal ridings; Ontario has 106.

Then, there is the telecommunications situation. As soon as Clement sensed a backlash on the CRTC’s approval of usage-based billing of Internet users, he didn’t bother to wait for cabinet to overturn the regulator’s decision. He publicly ordered the CRTC to reverse itself before the government did so. He also took a personal shot at CRTC chairman Konrad von Finckenstein by tweeting that he was looking forward to von Finckenstein testifying before a Commons committee the following day. It was Twitter bullying.

In a twist of fate, the Federal Court Of Canada recently issued a ruling that was humiliating to the government the same day that Clement beat up the CRTC. The court ruled that the government had no legal right to overturn a CRTC ruling in 2009 holding that Globalive Communications Corp. and its Wind brand was in contravention of Canada’s foreign-ownership rules. Somebody should tweet Clement with Macmillan’s advice. IE