Alberta’s capital city is poised for an economic resurgence unseen since the pre-recession boom years. Although nobody is using the “B” word this time around, steady growth appears to be on the horizon.

The pause of the recession effectively put the brakes on investments in the oilsands, which drove both investment dollars and human capital away from Edmonton. But not anymore. There currently are more than 100 projects totalling hundreds of billions of investment in the approval and early-development stage in the oilsands, according to the Fort McMurray, Alta.-based Oil Sands Developers Group.

Upward of a dozen of these are scheduled to get underway over the next five years. Three major projects are currently under construction — Imperial Oil Ltd.’s $8-billion Phase 1 Kearl mining development, Devon Canada Corp.’s $1.2-billion Jackfish Phase 2 project in situ and Suncor Energy Inc.’s $900-million Firebag Phase 3 project. (All three companies are based in Calgary.)

But unlike the previous energy economy, which floated the entire province, some prognosticators say there could be a different dynamic in play that will create a north/south economic divide in Alberta.

That faction suggests that the beneficiaries of the investment decisions this time around will be Edmonton and Fort McMurray. There are concrete examples: For instance, there is a glut of top-grade commercial space coming on the market in Calgary at a time when many firms from accountants to engineers have either cut back their head counts or redeployed staff to Edmonton and Fort McMurray, where the real work of the oilsands is done.

Besides the 58-storey Bow Building in downtown Calgary, which could sit half-empty, lots of additional new commercial space is coming on the market at the same time. And so is an unprecedented wave of unsold residential condos in Calgary’s downtown. So, the great buildout that consumed Calgary for much of the past decade is not only winding down, but will finish without the anticipated demand for all the new commercial and residential space that seemed like such a sure bet during the boom.

Contrast that with Edmonton’s situation: lagging Alberta’s southern city in construction and development for decades, the first new major office building in 22 years — the 28-storey Epcor tower, will be finished next year; its space is committed. And Edmonton Oilers billionaire owner Darryl Katz has a grand — albeit controversial — vision for a new downtown arena and entertainment district. There also are plans to shutter the Edmonton municipal airport and turn the site into a residential community of 30,000.

Plus, Edmonton plans to fast-track development of new above-ground transit lines south to Edmonton International Airport, west to the West Edmonton Mall and beyond, while another route will track northward. Calgary’s efficient C-Train, meanwhile, is already mostly built, with only a single new line to the west end from downtown on deck.

There are also hopeful whispers that Alberta’s stalled housing market will gain traction in Edmonton, while Calgary’s market remains flat. So, which of Alberta’s two major cities do you think will draw the smart money over the next decade? IE