With the exception of new foundland and Labrador, the Harper government has been able to count on a remarkably smooth spirit of goodwill and co-operation from the provinces, almost from the day it took office.

Now, the action of one premier threatens to return federal/provincial relations back to the old days of squabbling.

No, we’re not talking about the premier of Saskatchewan here, although the successful campaign led by Brad Wall to stop the sale of Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Ltd. will certainly have an effect. Rather, Gordon Campbell’s sudden decision to step down as premier of British Columbia likely will make Ottawa’s dealings with the provinces far more turbulent from now until the next federal election, at the least.

Campbell was widely regarded as the premier who had the prime minister’s ear. In fact, Stephen Harper owed Campbell big time for two things the B.C. premier did: ending his province’s opposition to a national securities regulator and following Ontario in introducing a harmonized federal/provincial sales tax.

Thanks to Campbell, the Harper government was looking at the prospect of finally achieving the formation of a national securities regulator, and also half the country’s economy — Ontario, Atlantic Canada and B.C. — using the HST.

As we all know, the HST is the reason Campbell suddenly ended his political career. Campbell was the lightening rod for protest against the tax, while the feds were conspicuous by their absence.

Other premiers aren’t likely to forget how Harper decided his own political capital was too precious to risk supporting a provincial ally on the HST. That’s bound to cost him in future federal/provincial relations.

Since Harper has been trying to cast the federal Liberals and NDP as coalition partners eager to raise taxes, his strategists may have to decide that a federal presence in the B.C. debate would have muddied the message.

As for the HST, it will likely survive in Ontario even if the provincial government changes. Progressive Conservative leader Tim Hudak, should he become premier, would likely decide he’d rather have the extra revenue than keep a promise to the voters, just as Jean Chrétien decided to keep the GST after he became prime minister in 1993.

In addition, the government of Ontario Premier Dalton McGuinty has been able to move from merely defending the HST to actually promoting it as a courageous initiative for future prosperity.

But HST survival in B.C. is quite another matter because of growing pressure for a referendum on the tax. There is a very good chance the B.C. Liberals won’t wait for a referendum to dump the HST.

As for Saskatchewan, Harper likely will long regret dismissing BHP’s bid to take over Potash as “a proposal for an American-controlled company to be taken over by an Australian-controlled company’’ when the takeover target actually was a Canadian-controlled company.

Anger over that quote galvanized opposition to the takeover in Saskatchewan and pushed Wall into forming a coalition of western premiers against federal approval of the takeover. Harper’s government, with 13 seats in Saskatchewan suddenly at risk, was forced into blocking the deal to appease Wall.

The Potash affair will long be a reminder of what can happen in politics when someone tries to fudge the truth — just as Campbell’s exit will remind how important it is to support your allies.

Meanwhile, there may not be any public evidence of animosity between Harper and Jim Prentice, as the former environment minister heads off to Bay Street. But expect speculation over a leadership race for Harper’s job.

Prentice was widely regarded as the leading potential successor to Harper when the Conservative leadership does become vacant. So, there is bound to be speculation that Prentice is just doing what Chrétien did when the former prime minister took voluntary exile on Bay Street to wait for the Liberal leadership to come open.

With former minister Maxime Bernier already on an unofficial tour to promote a Libertarian version of the party, we can expect a lot of speculation about Harper’s future in the months ahead. IE