Dogged by allegations of corruption and favouritism, Jean Charest’s prospects of winning a fourth mandate as Quebec premier seem bleak.

But with a new election as much as three years away, Charest can ignore his 70% voter dissatisfaction rating and disregard speculation he is about to be replaced as Quebec’s Liberal leader. Three years in politics is three eternities.

Charest is a skilled communicator. In his 26-year, charmed political career, he has won more than his share of turnovers. But if an election were held today, Pauline Marois would become Quebec’s first woman premier. Her Parti Québécois is proposing “sovereignist governance,” meaning the PQ would rule as if Quebec was already a sovereign state — without holding a sovereignty referendum.

In a province in which almost 40% of couples with children are unmarried, sovereignty without a formal separation might not seem totally unreasonable. But Marois, despite a CV that includes all the major cabinet positions — finance, health, education, treasury board — and her lead in the polls, does not fire the imagination of Quebecers.

In a Léger Marketing poll, “none-of-the-above” was the runaway winner as more respondents said they would vote for a phantom party led by François Legault over Marois’ PQ or Charest’s Liberals. Legault made his fortune as a co-founder of the charter airline Air Transat before entering politics as a minister, first in the PQ government of Lucien Bouchard, then the PQ cabinet of Bernard Landry.

Described as a “left-wing businessman,” Legault was the star of the PQ Opposition, slamming Charest’s economic ministers daily until June 2009, when he announced that he was leaving politics.

Legault admitted he did not enjoy life as an Opposition member. He did not split then with the PQ and had praise for Marois. But he did say he was concerned Quebec was on a “quiet decline,” lagging in productivity, education and wealth creation. And living beyond its means. “I am an accountant,” Legault said at his farewell news conference. “Coldly, when I look at it, there are two solutions. Either we cut spending or increase revenues.”

Not a popular stance in Quebec, where the Charest government’s first decision — to raise $5-a-day subsidized daycare to $7 — had sparked protests and set off a downward spiral in Liberal fortunes. The Léger poll suggests Legault’s party — which does not exist — would take 30% of the vote, vs 27% for the PQ and 25% for Charest’s Liberals. But respondents were not asked if they wanted fewer government services or the higher taxes Legault supports.

There has been speculation for months that a new right-of-centre political party would emerge in Quebec. So, there was a media feeding frenzy when the TVA television network reported Legault was starting a “movement” called Force Québec, that would become a new party. Legault was quick to deny such ambitions, even rejecting the Force Québec label. He said he and like-minded Quebecers were simply reflecting on the issues he had raised.

For months, Marois has been saying Charest should step down, citing the latter’s refusal to call a public inquiry into allegations of corruption in the construction industry. The sudden emergence of Legault’s virtual party gave Charest a chance to say the leadership of Marois was in trouble.

Legault raise’s serious questions. But they are tough issues unlikely to rally enough Quebecers in time to form a new party and win the next Quebec election. Maybe Charest is not finished after all. IE