If there is a word that can describe the current political malaise in Ottawa and the stock markets during the early 1980s recession, it is “trendless.”

Just as investors were convinced markets could get no lower but were not optimistic about recovery, federal voters in Canada may not think politics can get much worse, but they are not optimistic that their faith will be restored.

The only real growth showing up in the polls is in the “undecided” column.

A case in point is the latest poll by Nik Nanos. The Conservatives may show a lead over the Liberals after the margin of error is factored in (37.2% vs 33.2%, respectively). However, undecided voters stood at 22.2%. That’s six points above the NDP.

Canadians are also dramatically losing their enthusiasm for Prime Minister Stephen Harper, even though he continues to lead in the polls over the other party leaders at 29%. On the other hand, 26% were either unsure or said none of the leaders was suitable.

This is an electorate in despair of politics in general. An election tomorrow probably would not yield a Parliament much different from what exists today.

That may be because the government has lost control of the daily narrative coming out of Ottawa. Before Christmas, Harper seemed to wear Teflon and the government controlled which issue got attention in the media and which would be deprived of oxygen. Not anymore. After the government’s miscalculation about proroguing, the Tories have been stumbling from one crisis to another.

Yet, despite the Tories’ problems, the Opposition is still failing to convert this dissatisfaction into support in the polls.

What we have in Canada today is a government that has hit its “best before” date. But that doesn’t mean it will be out of power soon. Just as the Liberals were able to stay in power years after their “best before” date, thanks to a divided and ineffective Opposition, this government could, too.

With a health-care system that is unsustainable in most of the provinces and a continuing deficit, the current malaise in federal politics has implications that go beyond who wins the horse race.

If the standoff continues, who will have the political capital to balance budgets and cut costs in health care? Currently, all parties are nervous about venturing onto new ground. This may be why Industry Minister Tony Clement recently announced some first steps to providing broadband coverage to rural Canada on a Sunday, when media attention is minimal.

It is not impossible to leave a lasting legacy during an extended minority government. In the 1960s, after all, the Liberals were able to take advantage of a national obsession with emotional issues — capital punishment, a new national flag and bilingual stop signs — to slide through such major changes as national health care and the Canada Pension Plan.

Until one party can catch the public’s imagination, trendless politics and weak government will continue — unless, of course, there is a merger. Watch for a debate soon among Liberals and New Democrats about merging to form one centre/left party.

In addition, watch for cracks in the coalition that formed the current Conservative party, particularly as the abortion debate heats up.



Mea culpa: In my November 2009 column, I wrote that Rahim Jaffer organized a daylong meeting between the banking industry and the Conservative financial services caucus. I was in error: Jaffer wasn’t involved. IE