The consensus among pundits covering Quebec politics is that Jean Charest, after his third straight election win last December, will step down before the next Quebec election.

Some see Charest, a lawyer by training, taking the route of other former politicians, such as Brian Mulroney or Lucien Bouchard, who left politics for prestigious law firms and corporate directorships. Others see the Quebec Liberal premier, until 1998 leader of the federal Progressive Conservatives, returning to Ottawa and succeeding Stephen Harper as head of the Conservative Party.

Another option would be an international post involving climate change, a priority for Charest dating back to his time as federal environment minister under Mulroney.

But if Charest is leaving, he is showing no signs of his departure plan. Organizers of a September tribute to mark the 25th anniversary of Mulroney’s first majority government win in 1984 chose Charest and Michael Wilson, federal finance minister under Mulroney and now Canada’s ambassador to Washington, to co-chair the event.

Those who see the current Quebec Liberal leader as the future head of the Conservative Party of Canada are Mulroney Tories. Charest’s first switch from the Tory leadership to the Quebec Liberal leadership was possible because Quebec has no provincial Conservative party and the Liberals were the federalist alternative to the Parti Québécois.

But Harper, as former head of the Canadian Alliance, has the backing of Westerners, who think it is their turn; with only a few, short-lived exceptions, Quebec has sent prime ministers to Ottawa for more than 40 years.

But as Quebec’s premier, Charest has been building a strong national profile, stealing the PQ’s thunder, defending Quebec’s language law and even persuading Harper to call Quebec “a nation.” Charest is also busy flexing Quebec’s sovereignty in areas of its own jurisdiction, including the environment, as well as certain aspects of its presence on the international stage. Last fall, for example, Quebec signed a manpower mobility agreement with France’s president, Nicolas Sarkozy. Charest has even enlisted Harper to negotiate a bilateral economic partnership with the European Union, which Charest sees as a way to broaden Quebec’s relations with France.

On the other hand, Charest is also suing the federal government over its plans to create a national securities commission.

Nothing in particular indicates Charest is actively preparing to take over from Harper. There is, for instance, no sign that he is grooming a successor. His two strongest ministers, Philippe Couillard, in health, and Monique Jérôme-Forget, in finance, have left politics.

Loyalty is the chief characteristic of Charest’s current cabinet lineup. But no member really stands out as a replacement for Charest. Deputy Premier Nathalie Normandeau has proven to be a solid minister; but she is from the Gaspé region and does not speak English, making her an unlikely choice to lead the Montreal-centred Liberals. Claude Béchard is also from outside Montreal; his English is adequate, but he had major surgery for pancreatic cancer last year and his health remains a question mark.

Government house leader Jacques Dupuis appears weary of his own job and shows no interest in replacing the boss. Raymond Bachand, now in finance, has a solid resumé in both politics and the private sector but is more the competent administrator than a rough-and-tumble politician.

And yet, despite sustained attacks on Bachand and other Liberal ministers, Charest ended the spring session gaining in popularity and winning a byelection in Rivière-du-Loup, held by former Action démocratique du Québec party leader Mario Dumont since 1994.

The PQ thought it had a chance in Rivière-du-Loup, but the popularity of former Rivière-du-Loup mayor Jean D’Amour and the release of a new PQ program, which could include serial referendums to wrest powers from Ottawa, scuttled the PQ’s chances.

Charest ended the session ahead of the game, with his aides talking about him winning a fourth mandate. IE