As another bracing canadi-an winter sails toward its inevitable conclusion, Canada’s political wunderkind plans to celebrate the rites of spring with a party marking Newfoundland and Labrador’s new status as a “have” province.

Details remain hidden under a cloak of secrecy, but we can be certain that it will feature Premier Danny Williams in vintage form: the word “pride” and the term “masters of our own destiny” will be sprinkled liberally in speeches before rapturous crowds at hockey arenas stretching from St. John’s to Happy Valley-Goose Bay.

Or, perhaps, he will forgo the tour and limit himself to a televised address to the masses, citing “budgetary constraints.”

Certainly, there must be some niggling doubt in Williams’ mind about whether the multitudes will show up should he arrive in their midst and, if so, whether some of those in attendance might have a few choice words of their own for Danny.

After all, Williams was elected because he was perceived to be a highly competent businessman who could, presumably, work the magic required to diversify Newfoundland and Labrador’s one-trick pony of a resources-based economy — hewers of wood, fishers of cod, diggers of iron ore and suckers of oil.

From the time of Williams’ election in 2003 to the federal election in 2008, his government gained significant political capital via the ritual flaying of two prime ministers: first Paul Martin, and then Stephen Harper. The domestic audience loved the spectacle, so much so that few people bothered to question seriously how the fundamentals of the province’s economy were faring.

Now, five years into Williams’ term as premier and in the midst of a worldwide recession, people are starting to wonder what — in reality — his government has achieved. Is Danny Williams the Lehman Brothers of Canadian politics?

Since Willliams took office, the province has seen no significant growth in manufacturing and there are precious few signs that the economy will reduce its dependency on extracting natural resources.

In fact, these sectors had been in a state of decline long before Canada’s economy joined the worldwide recessionary vortex late last year.

In 2003, the province had three paper mills; it will soon have only one, with the closure of the century-old Grand Falls-Windsor plant this spring.

Labrador’s two iron ore mines are shedding jobs, and there are lingering questions about whether Vale Inco will actually build its much anticipated nickel-processing plant in Long Harbour, as was announced this past fall.

As for the fishery, while it is too early to predict prices for 2009, the prognosis is not good. Much of the industry has relied on snow crab, but with softening markets in the U.S. — as consumers eschew eating in restaurants — fishermen may find it difficult to pay their crews, let alone turn a profit on crab.

Then there is the oil industry. Lost in the hoopla of US$150-per-barrel oil early last year, and the announcement that the Hebron project will proceed, was the sobering reality that crude oil production peaked in 2007 and is forecast to decline year after year unless new, more commercially viable oilfields are discovered. Unfortunately, the most recent viable field was found 25 years ago, despite the expenditure of hundreds of millions of dollars on exploration efforts since the mid-1980s.

To make matters worse, a flood of Newfoundlanders who had found jobs in Alberta’s oilsands projects are expected to return home in the wake of layoffs in that province.

The provincial government is anticipating a budgetary surplus for 2009, but even Williams has admitted that a return to deficits will probably occur in 2010.

So, what will his message to the growing numbers of unemployed and economically distressed workers be, as he celebrates “have” status? Perhaps: “Party like there’s no tomorrow!” IE