When British Columbia’s premier, Gordon Campbell, appears on the province’s nightly television news, he often looks a little pale and very much like a man with plenty on his mind. No doubt, his usual winter holiday on Maui’s warm, sunny beaches won’t come soon enough.

What a difference a year can make. A year ago, the premier and his B.C. Liberal party were sitting high atop the polls, far ahead of rival Carole James and her NDP. But one recent poll had the Liberals trailing, and some West Coast pundits now predict that next May’s provincial election will be very close.

And, even though a governing party in B.C. hasn’t won a byelection in 27 years, the fact that the Liberals lost two byelections in Vancouver ridings on Oct. 29 has certainly given the NDP an invigorating shot of confidence.

In one of them, Vancouver-Burrard, the Liberals had picked high-profile candidate Arthur Griffiths to defend the riding for them. But the rookie candidate was solidly trounced by NDP newcomer Spencer Herbert. (The Griffiths family is the previous owner of the National Hockey League’s Vancouver Canucks and the now-departed Vancouver Grizzlies of the National Basketball Association.)

On that byelection eve, the premier looked particularly fatigued but nevertheless attempted to put on a positive face, even though the count in B.C.’s legislature stands at Liberals, 45; NDP, 34. All that’s needed for a change in government next May, after two consecutive Campbell terms, is for the NDP to take six more seats from the Liberals.

Why have Campbell’s fortunes fallen so far, to the point at which it’s no longer a certainty that he’ll be the premier who welcomes the world when Vancouver and Whistler host the 2010 Winter Olympic Games?

For one thing, his government is perceived by many as being arrogant and poor at listening. When the global economy began sliding seriously earlier this year and B.C.’s Joe Average Family was beginning to tighten its belt, Campbell approved massive wage hikes to senior bureaucrats. Then, as those cost-conscious families contended with record-high gasoline prices, Campbell ignored public outcry and introduced his controversial fuel carbon tax.

And his government has done other, incredibly stupid things, such as pushing an overhead high-voltage power line through a residential neighbourhood in the Vancouver suburb of Tsawwassen, even though burying the lines or routing them elsewhere were both viable alternatives.

Consequently, a public backlash is building, and there’s no guarantee that Campbell will be able to reverse this trend in time for May’s election.

But he is no quitter. Responding to the external global downturn, Campbell unveiled a “mini-budget” of sorts in a televised address on Oct. 22. It featured individual and business tax cuts as part of a new initiative designed to stimulate B.C.’s economy.

Essentially, the tax cuts (5% for individuals and 1% for small business) are simply an acceleration of cuts already planned. But Campbell also announced that his government will accelerate public investments in capital infrastructure projects to help support B.C.’s economy.

While there was no total cost figure released with the premier’s 10-point stimulus package, it’s widely thought that the cost of this plan, plus what is expected to be a significant downturn in revenue from B.C.’s resources-based economy, means Campbell will have a difficult time coming up with a bottom-line surplus when his government tables its 2009-2010 budget on Feb. 17.

This, of course, will be the budget the B.C. Liberals carry into the May 17 election.

I’ll bet those Maui beaches are looking awfully attractive about now. Eh, Gordon? IE