You don’t have to be a meteorologist to figure out when a winter storm is approaching on the West Coast. All you have to do is simply look westward. What you see on the ocean’s horizon is what you’re about to get.

Casting an eye toward the horizon also works for forecasting the arrival of inclement taxes in British Columbia. Early rumblings that Premier Gordon Campbell’s government was considering a province-wide carbon tax began late last year, after Victoria announced new climate-action legislation to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions and other air contaminants by 33%, or 40 million fewer tonnes annually, by 2020.

Such scuttlebutt was hardly surprising, as the Campbell government has been on a “green kick” for the past year or so.

But the consensus among Victoria’s political pundits was that it would be a very brave premier who would introduce a carbon tax — perhaps as early as the Feb. 19 budget — with only one more year to go in his mandate.

Even the fact that B.C. Finance Minister Carole Taylor was openly talking about seriously considering the measure for her upcoming budget didn’t alter the view that introducing a provincial carbon tax wouldn’t make sense, politically speaking.

But that changed on Jan. 14, when Premier Campbell and his transportation minister, Kevin Falcon, announced a $14-billion public transit plan for B.C. that was to be fully implemented by 2020.

“Bingo!” cried B.C.’s political pundits.

Although dropping a new carbon tax on the electorate, in and of itself, would be political suicide, it would be a no-brainer if the government could link the new tax to a major initiative designed to provide voters with much-improved public transit alternatives as well as cleaner air. The B.C. Liberal government could then take its carbon tax into the next election as a plus for re-election, not a minus.

The transit plan needs a whopping $11.1 billion in new funding, of which B.C. estimates it can cover about 40%, or $4.75 billion.

Campbell is also counting on the federal government for $3.1 billion over the coming 12 years and is looking to TransLink — the authority that runs the Metro Vancouver transit system — for $2.75 billion. The local governments within Metro Vancouver are expected to find $500 million from their property taxes.

The plan calls for $10.3 billion in four new or upgraded rapid transit lines in Metro Vancouver, including the Canada Line from Vancouver International Airport to downtown Vancouver, which is already under construction. Another line would branch off the existing Skytrain routes and run westward to the University of B.C.

Also included are dedicated RapidBus routes in Metro Vancouver, Kelowna and Victoria, as well as funding for 1,500 new energy-efficient conventional buses.

Although the transit plan outline did not explain just how all this infrastructure is going to be financed, the fact that the Campbell government’s goal of reducing emissions 33% by 2020 is now mandated by law only strengthens the expectation that a carbon tax is definitely in the cards — if not in the Feb. 19 provincial budget, then certainly just over the horizon.

Remember, when the B.C. Liberals seek a third consecutive mandate in 2009, they’ll have to show some signs of progress on their shiny new transit plan — and that will take cash, lots of it.

But a B.C. carbon tax is causing some con-cern within the province’s business sector. Jock Finlayson, chief economist for the Business Council of B.C. , says that by going it alone with a carbon tax, the province is helping to create additional regulatory fragmentation across the country.

Federal Finance Minister Jim Flaherty agrees. “Generally speaking, it’s desirable in Canada not to have multiple regulators in various areas of the economy,” he said during a recent trip to Vancouver.

But B.C. would not be the first out of the gate. Quebec implemented a tax on carbon fuels last year. So, as far as Campbell is concerned, the precedent has been set. IE