The trademark phrase of Bernard Derome, Television de Radio-Canada’s long-running anchorman, is: “Si la tendance se maintient,” which means “If the trend continues.”

Derome is credited with the divine power to decide Quebec elections. His phrase traditionally anoints the likely winner as the election returns come in. The election is considered to be over when Derome speaks.

However, on March 26, 2007, Derome projected that Premier Jean Charest would lose his Sherbrooke seat. For once, Derome called it wrong. Charest’s Liberals managed a plurality of votes, winning in a three-way split. And not only did Charest hold on to his seat — he remained Quebec’s premier.

Since then, the pundits have been writing off Charest. “Si la tendance se maintient,” they say, Charest would be defeated in the next election. But the premier has been quietly rebuilding his political capital while steering clear of the polarizing issues that had pushed him to record-low satisfaction ratings.

Charest took on labour unions, he unfroze hydro rates, reneged on a campaign promise to maintain $5-a-day daycare and did not keep his commitment to cut taxes by a billion dollars a year for five years.

His insistence on building a gas-fired electricity-generating plant, a tussle with Health Minister Philippe Couillard concerning the location of a new Montreal teaching hospital and Charest’s inexplicable plan to privatize the Mont Orford ski area, now in a provincial park, eroded his popularity.

Since the election, however, the Liberal minority government has worked with the two Opposition parties and Charest has avoided any major gaffes.

Still, more voters are dissatisfied than satisfied, and the Liberals are running third among francophone voters in a province that is 85% French-speaking. But Charest’s satisfaction rating rose to a personal best of 47% in a poll just before Christmas.

The pundits, in writing Charest off, saw Mario Dumont moving easily from leader of the Opposition to the premier’s office in the next election. But Dumont and his Action d»mocratique du Qu»bec party have disappointed in Opposition. Short on effective parliamentarians in the ADQ caucus, the pundits now say “Super Mario” is not yet ready for prime time.

So, what about the Parti Qu»b»cois? Its 28% share of the vote in March 2007 was its worst showing since 1970, the first election the PQ contested. But that could be blamed on Andr» Boisclair, who the Quebec heartland saw as too much the Montreal sophisticate — and that is where the ADQ made its gains.

Boisclair has since resigned as PQ leader and was replaced by Pauline Marois. Marois plans to abandon Boisclair’s losing program, which called for a third sovereignty referendum no matter what.

With Dumont getting little traction, the pundits turned to Marois: surely, a revived PQ would beat Charest.

The polls put Marois ahead of both Charest and Dumont. But not far ahead, as the affection of voters remains split three ways. And Charest, who only seems to do well in the ballot box, has been holding his own and has even surpassed Dumont in the polls.

So, can Marois win the next election?

Maybe not. Marois tried to rekindle interest in the PQ by proposing the ill-considered concept of Quebec citizenship for new Canadians and newcomers from other provinces. The idea has not taken off. The PQ is broke and it is not clear in what direction it is headed.

As for Charest, given the ineptness of his opponents, Derome could well find himself pronouncing him the first Quebec premier in almost 60 years to win three election mandates in a row. IE