As the price of a barrel of crude oil crossed the US$100 mark in early January, one could imagine Newfoundland and Labrador’s own Scrooge McDuck counting a growing mountain of treasure from his command post.

Just one month earlier, Premier Danny Williams disclosed that his government is expecting a record budget surplus of $881 million in 2007-08 — a windfall of $620 million. By March 31, even this figure may be exceeded; if oil prices continue to climb, then the government could reasonably anticipate a $1-billion surplus in the coming fiscal year.

But like the miser of comic book fame, Williams will not be spending the province’s new-found fortune on education and social programs, as some critics have been demanding. Instead, the $620 million is being applied to pay down the province’s $11-billion debt.

Finance Minister Tom Marshall defended this decision, pointing out that the government’s debt works out to about $22,000 for every person living in the province, which is more than double the national average of $10,000.

Looking ahead to looming contract negotiations with the province’s public-sector unions this year, Marshall is keen to emphasize what he says is a temporary surge in revenue, driven solely by global oil prices. As oil reserves dwindle over the coming years, royalties will diminish, thus placing the government in the all too familiar position of facing financial catastrophe.

But such warnings are a little difficult to square with other pronouncements by the Williams administration. Several megaprojects have been dangled tantalizingly before the populace, most notably during this past autumn’s provincial election, in which the Tories won all but four of the 48 seats and raked in 80% of the votes — a result most often seen in contests rigged by African dictators.

At the top of the list of possible projects is construction of a second oil refinery at Come By Chance, located 100 kilometres west of St. John’s. This past November, Newfoundland and Labrador Refining Corp. signed a tentative deal with construction unions for thousands of skilled workers should the $5-billion refinery proceed.

The company is hoping to break ground this year on the refinery, which would produce 300,000 barrels a day.

Although a great deal of uncertainty still surrounds this project, the future of the proposed Hebron offshore oilfield appears more certain. Fractious negotiations between the government and the Hebron consortium ended happily this past autumn — just in time for the provincial election. Even though little has been heard since about this project, development is expected to begin in 2010.

Mining is another area of growth. Aur Resources Inc. opened a copper, silver and gold mine in central Newfoundland this past year, and several other projects are slated to begin over the coming two to three years.

If these investments come to fruition, then royalty windfalls, such as those experienced last year by the government of Newfoundland and Labrador, will no longer come as a surprise to the finance minister.

Already, there are signs of a sustained period of growth for the provincial economy, which has never truly recovered after losing the cod fishery in 1992. In December, census figures recorded a boost in Newfoundland and Labrador’s population — its first gain in 15 years.

New jobs are luring workers home from Alberta’s oilsands, and retirees who left home years ago are coming back to enjoy the communities in which they were born.

Such cheery news is not without its caveats. Many rural areas are withering away due to a lack of jobs and disintegrating infrastructure, and the province’s new-found wealth is not trickling down to help the most needy.

But for the first time in recent memory, people in this province speak about the future with confidence rather than just hope. Perhaps young people will soon be looking to their own communities for security rather than to Fort McMurray, Alta., and Toronto. IE