At first, there was a deal that spelled out how much Nova Scotia would get in offshore oil and gas royalties, as well as continuing equalization payments. Then, there was no deal. Now, there is a deal — but no one is signing on to anything.

The latest handshake returns the province to its heady payday before the federal budget was handed down this past March. That budget said Nova Scotia would have to choose between royalties down the road or equalization payments now. Premier Rodney MacDonald was not happy — and his unhappiness was widely shared.

MacDonald publicly scurried to find a solution. The premier, whose short tenure at the helm has been marked by one fiasco after another, tried urging provincial members of Parliament to vote against the federal budget and with the people of Nova Scotia. That failed. He then tried to work out a counter-deal with the ever-malleable Stephen Harper. The jig was up on that option when Harper arrived in the province to give away a bucket of money and didn’t bother to invite the premier — or even let him know he was coming.

That left the Senate and a last-ditch effort to have the bill vetoed. Also not fruitful ground, even though the upper house is densely populated with Liberals.

It appeared the game was over and the spoils of victory had gone to the prime minister. Then, unexpectedly, both leaders, who had started talking somewhere along the line, announced that a new deal had been reached. Actually, an old deal had been reached. Under the terms of the tryst, which is not yet signed into law but enshrined in letters, Nova Scotia is back to where it started before the brouhaha.

Indeed, according to MacDonald: “We have clarified that Nova Scotia will never lose benefits negotiated in good faith under the 2005 accord. In fact — based on today’s estimates — we expect to receive an additional $229 million more than would have been provided under the accord.”

The official letter-writing between the new buddies means Nova Scotia can choose a different equalization formula than was offered in this spring’s federal budget. But at this point, it gets a little tricky. There are actually two formulas, and Nova Scotia must choose which it wants next year.

It appears the province can’t go wrong. In a joint release, both governments noted: “Since the impact of the choice can only be determined by future variables, such as offshore activity and the fiscal strength of other provinces, Nova Scotia will be compensated to ensure it receives no less than was expected over the life of the 2005 accord.”

There’s more. Nova Scotia’s statutory right to federal payments, based on offshore oil and gas project cash flows, known as Crown share payments, will be addressed. Both levels of government have agreed to accept recommendations from an independent panel, which will report findings on Crown share by March 15, 2008.

“We believe Crown share is worth hundreds of millions of dollars to Nova Scotia,” MacDonald says. “For almost two decades, we made no headway in resolving this issue; and now we have come to a solution that reaffirms a right that was established in law in the early 1980s.”

All this should have made Nova Scotians jubilant. Instead, it has made us skepti-cal. The ice thaw, the newly found common ground and the apparent unwillingness to put an official seal of approval on the deal make for a very nervous celebration.

Oh, have no doubt we’ll take what we can get while we can, but we’re not sure how long nirvana will last. After all, Stephen Harper could show up unannounced next month. He has before. IE