It’s election year in newfound- land and Labrador, which means hunting season has begun. The quarry: federal politicians, particularly those foolhardy enough to not kiss Premier Danny Williams’ ring.

There are several battles in which Williams could engage Ottawa as he attempts to consolidate support before the election occurs, probably in early October. They include:

> Equalization. Williams is demanding his federal Tory counterparts exempt non-renewable resources tax revenue from the federal/provincial equalization formula. He has the support of Saskatchewan Premier Lorne Calvert, who may also face an election this year. The two premiers’ arguments have gained little traction in other provinces.

> Lower Churchill Falls Hydro. Like his predecessors, Williams has been lobbying Ottawa to pry open a power-line corridor through Quebec so Labrador electricity can reach New England customers. Quebec Premier Jean Charest is unenthusiastic about the prospect of Ottawa imposing its will on his province. And, because Stephen Harper will not surrender his Quebec seats to help Newfoundland and Labrador gain a power corridor, Williams’ campaign will almost certainly fail. But this does not mean he will shy away from campaigning against both Ottawa and Quebec on this issue.

> Offshore Oil. Newfoundland and Labrador has been demanding that Harper introduce “fallow field” legislation placing time limits on developing offshore oil reservoirs. Williams’ target is the Hebron consortium, headed by Chevron Canada Ltd., which walked away from development when the premier insisted that a minority equity share of the offshore oil project be turned over to the province. Last year, Harper refused to give in to Williams’ demands, claiming that forcing a change on the existing rules governing Hebron would set a bad precedent.

Among these issues, Williams seems to have selected equalization as his cause célèbre because he enjoys some political leverage over Harper and his minority Conservative government. The premier has accused Harper of backtracking on a commitment to leave non-renewable resources revenue out of the equalization formula, thereby negating gains Newfoundland and Labrador made in the renegotiated Atlantic Accord.

Last autumn, Williams warned that the federal Conservatives should expect “a big goose egg” from Newfoundland and Labrador in the next federal election should his fears be realized. For their part, all three local Conservative MPs have downplayed the spat and deny the province will suffer from a new federal/provincial equalization formula.

But Williams’ leverage is compromised by bad timing; a federal election may occur this spring, before the introduction of a revamped equalization plan by the federal Tories. If a majority government of any stripe is elected, Williams will lose substantial advantage.

The obvious answer for Williams would be to call a provincial election this winter or early spring — before a federal vote — asking voters to send a message of support for his administration that would be heard in Ottawa. But this is hindered by legislation, passed by the Williams administration, guaranteeing fixed election dates. The next provincial election is scheduled for Oct. 9. Williams could ask for dissolution of the House of Assembly at an earlier date, but that would look like blatant opportunism.

Williams could be left with little to campaign on but his record. He could end up
facing voters who ask: “What have you done for us lately?” For a man who has thrived on hope, that question could prove deadly. IE