This month, the newspapers have been filled with stories about the Harper government’s new-found interest in the environment and all things green. But the changes the Tories are making go far beyond the environment.
Basically, we have just witnessed the end of an experiment in Canadian politics before it was fully tested with the voters.
Last spring, when the Tories were enjoying rising polls and a honeymoon with the voters, “Canada’s New Government,’’ as it likes to call itself, was practising something known in the political world as “narrowcasting.”
Instead of the traditional Canadian “big-tent’’ approach, in which centrist parties try to cast the widest possible denominator with the voters, the Tories were targeting their appeal to a core vote — even if that meant making the chattering classes angry. Hence the “Kyoto be damned” attitude.
The idea behind this approach is that instead of wasting time trying to appeal to undecided voters and hardened Liberals, NDPers or Bloc supporters who will never vote for you anyway, you leverage your energies by vigorously appealing to your own supporters and creating a momentum or buzz that will attract undecided and swing voters.
Until recently, this approach had worked for the Republicans in the U.S. — and it still does for the government of Australian Prime Minister John Howard. Had it worked here, politics in Canada probably would have changed forever.
But, of course, it hasn’t worked. The Tories have simply watched whatever political capital they had built up, between the January 2006 election and the summer, melt like ice on the Rideau Canal this winter. They are now virtually tied in the polls with the Liberals.
So, it is rebranding time.
Although the Liberals have problems of their own, a growing number of Canadians think their New Government is close to its best-before date.
But all of the Tories’ problems can’t be blamed on narrowcasting. They have found themselves on the wrong side of a dramatic shift in public opinion in which the environment is Priority No. 1 — from barely being on the radar screen a year ago.
The Conservatives also had the plain bad luck of being caught in what probably will be the warmest winter on record while appearing to be doing little on climate change.
But in addition to green, green and more green announcements for the next few months, watch for some big changes in Tory tactics and strategy — and even in Prime Minister Stephen Harper himself.
This is why when Wajid Khan switched to the Tories from the Liberals, Harper treated the move as far more than just a routine switch in loyalties. He used the Khan defection as a beachhead into the ethnic community, a traditional Liberal stronghold.
“There’s a place for everyone within the new Conservative Party of Canada,’’ declared Harper at a campaign-style stop in Khan’s riding in Mississauga, Ont.
We appear to be witnessing a kinder, gentler Stephen Harper in all those interviews he is giving his new friends in the media these days.
After he almost lost the 1972 election, Pierre Trudeau learned to become one of the retail politicians he once scorned. Or, as veteran CBC journalist and political commentator Larry Zolf wrote, “He had gone from Philosopher King to Mackenzie King’’ before he won a majority in 1974.
We probably will see major changes in Harper, as well, before he faces the voters again.
But regardless of what happens, you probably can forget all that you have read and heard about an imminent election. With the NDP holding the balance of power after Khan’s defection, many Tories think the election could be more than a year away.
A more probable scenario would be NDP Leader Jack Layton repeating what he did with the Liberals in the fall of 2005. Once Layton has extracted as many concessions as possible from the Tories in return for NDP support, Layton will announce he can no longer work with this government — say, come next November — and support a non-confidence motion.
A fall election could be difficult for the Conservatives right after the mandatory Ontario election in early October. Many prominent Tories in Ottawa are already working for Ontario Conservative Leader John Tory. They won’t be enthusiastic about going back to the war room the following month.
In addition, many of the people who worked hardest to get Harper elected last year are lobbyists. And they haven’t liked what this government has had to say about their profession.
@page_break@The last straw was a deliberate decision to exclude members of the world’s second oldest profession from the Tories’ annual Christmas party.
The end result is that the Conservatives might have difficulty mounting an effective ground campaign next time around. IE
Conservatives turn more than just green
The Tories’ new “big-tent” approach puts an end to their strategy of targeting only core voters
- By: Gord McIntosh
- January 22, 2007 October 29, 2019
- 15:22
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