After months of positioning and posturing, the campaign for the leadership of the Liberal Party of Canada has become a horse race. The field is narrowing and the front-runners are emerging, but the outcome is still unknown.

The campaign that began in January and ends in December has now succeeded in separating the hopeful from the hopeless —even if the latter refuse to recognize it. We know those who will go to the convention in Montreal with a strong chance of winning, those with a moderate chance and those with no chance at all.

With the delegate selection now over, things have clarified. Several of the early contenders have dropped out. They have realized the cost of running was too high and their prospects of winning too low.

Others persist, hoping for a miracle, certain that things will change. Some imagine themselves as kingmakers.

The candidates in the bottom tier are Joe Volpe, Scott Brison and Martha Hall Findlay. All received less than 5% of the delegates. None can win.

For some, it is about the next time. The most promising is Brison, who is young, gay and principled. Findlay hopes to win a seat and enter Parliament. Both have a future in the party. For Volpe, whose best years are behind him, it is about pride.

The darkest horse remains Ken Dryden, who has less than 6% of the delegates. He argues he is the best known of the candidates among Canadians, and he may well be right. In a long, brokered convention of many ballots, he hopes to emerge as a compromise. That is highly improbable.

In truth, Dryden is the big disappointment of the campaign. He has star power as one of hockey’s greatest players, and he is a former minister. But he is terribly dull and he speaks poor French, which have hurt his chances.

That leaves the top tier: Michael Ignatieff, author, professor and newly elected MP; Bob Rae, former premier of Ontario and career New Democrat; Stéphane Dion, the former minister of the environment and unapologetic federalist; and Gerard Kennedy, former Ontario minister of education and youngest of the four.

The top three will win, place and show. The question is: in which order, and on which ballot? The candidate who leads on the first ballot, or even the second or third, may not be the one who leads on the fourth or fifth — which is how many rounds this could take.

Ignatieff now has about 30% of the delegates on the first ballot. Rae has about 19%. Dion and Kennedy each have about 17%.

Already, this race is different from others in the history of Canada’s so-called “natural governing party.” Only in 1919 and 1968 did leadership races go beyond two ballots.

This is not 2003, when Paul Martin won easily, nor 1990, when Jean Chrétien beat Martin. Both won on the first ballot. Nor does it look like 1984, when John Turner beat Chrétien on the second ballot.

More likely, it is like 1968, when Pierre Trudeau led a crowded field on all four ballots. History is on Ignatieff’s side. In the preceding seven Liberal leadership races — including the first-ballot selection of both Lester Pearson in 1958 and Louis St. Laurent in 1948 — the favourite won.

Ignatieff remains the man to beat, but he can be beaten. Despite enormous media attention — including a 14,000-word profile in The Globe and Mail in August and a new book critical of his scholarly writings — Ignatieff is still 15%-20% short of what he needs to win.

It is uncertain how much room he has to grow. In a poll taken before the delegates were selected, Ignatieff was the second choice of only 12% of Liberals, while Rae was the second choice of 23% and Dion, of 17%.

If the numbers are correct, this means that on a second or third ballot, Rae is twice as likely as Ignatieff to draw the supporters of candidates who drop out. Dion is also well positioned. Both have room to grow as Ignatieff stalls.

The big question is: who will go where after the first ballot, when the bottom candidates are eliminated and the delegates are released from their obligations to support certain candidates? Then the real horse-trading will begin.

Will there be movement to stop Ignatieff? It is possible Dion and Kennedy, realizing they cannot win, will go to Rae. To-gether, their support could put him over the top.

@page_break@Will Kennedy go to Ignatieff? If Ignatieff gets as much as 35% on the first ballot — his delegate total will probably swell with the votes of parliamentarians and party officials — it is possible Kennedy’s support could create an unstoppable juggernaut for Ignatieff.

Will Dion outpoll Rae on the first ballot, forcing Rae to go to him, and bringing Kennedy along, too?

The Liberals are about to pick their leader in a national convention unlike any they have held in a generation. This will be no coronation. IE



Andrew Cohen is an author and professor of journalism and international affairs at Carleton University in Ottawa.