It’s anxiety central here on the banks of the Rideau River any time a long-standing government falls. That’s why the good citizenry here has forgotten all about the Jan. 23 election campaign and is devoting every waking hour to focusing on what the new government will look like.

Read that as “What’s in it for us?” or “What will the collateral damage be?” And the attitude is probably no different among Canada’s business elite. So Bay Street careerists might like to join us for a little crystal ball gazing.

First off, it’s a Conservative free-enterprise party, right? So what does Bay Street have to worry about? Well, the Conservatives certainly are not anti-business. But Bay Street won’t have the hold on this government that it did with the Liberals or even the old Progressive Conservatives. That’s because this new party doesn’t have the dependency on corporate donations former governments had.

Bay Street never felt comfortable cozying up to the Conservatives’ old Reform and Canadian Alliance predecessor parties. Then, to top it off, the Liberals introduced limits to corporate donations about the same time the Alliance and the PCs merged.

As a result, the new Conservative Party developed a fundraising infrastructure that doesn’t involve Bay Street.

It is also worth noting that the Conservatives’ much-hyped accountability package and the current post-Gomery climate toward lobbying means our new prime minister would probably rather be caught at a same-sex wedding than being seen as too close to Bay Street.

Because the new Conservatives modelled their campaign on those of their counterparts Down Under, it’s important to remember a principle of Australian PM John Howard: the average person must be able to see the direct benefits of economic policy.

That’s why Stephen Harper, a conservative-minded professional economist, has put so much importance in a small GST cut even though it’s bad economic policy. A GST cut is something ordinary people will see over and over again at Home Depot and Future Shop.

So, anyone looking for action from this government on bank merger guidelines, a national securities regulator or anything else on Bay Street’s wish list should have a way to explain how the little guy will benefit.

A lot of people on Bay Street are probably wishing they had planted some roots in the old Reform Party, or gotten a couple of Tories elected south of Toronto’s Steeles Avenue.

Good news for federalists

Much has been written about the Conservative breakthrough in Quebec by winning 10 seats. But federalists of the Liberal persuasion should also take comfort in the results there (see page 60).

The total, combined federalist popular vote vs the sovereigntist popular vote was 57% to 42%. This explains why the Bloc Québécois appears to have forgotten about the Liberals in order to train their sights on a party that had not previously held a seat in Quebec.

This development will also certainly relieve anxiety about financial markets and is probably an important milestone in saving Canada as a federal state.

It’s highly unlikely the Bloc and its allies will be eager to push another referendum with the emergence of a new federalist force.

That said, it will be a priority for Harper to convince Quebecers that they matter to him. Otherwise, this strong federalist sentiment could revert to the Liberals next time.

In any event, here are some other things to watch as the Tories take power:

> Behind every great political leader is a Cardinal Richelieu. So it is ironic that among the first things Harper did was turn to Derek Burney to head up his transition team. Burney is the man Brian Mulroney turned to in 1988 to clean up a very dysfunctional Prime Minister’s Office. Maybe if Paul Martin had his own Richelieu, he would still be prime minister.

> Harper may be able to deliver on all his election promises within the current fiscal framework. But because program spending has been picking up speed over the past five years — rising 15% last year alone — count on the mother of all expenditure reviews, especially as he’ll probably offer more tax cuts during the next election. As a result, many resumés may be e-mailed and faxed from Ottawa in the coming months.

> It is no secret that politicians can go from hero to zero to hero again with the Parliamentary Press Gallery Association. Because Harper got a much easier ride from the media in this campaign than Martin, journalists on Parliament Hill will want to even out perceptions quickly. So Harper can’t expect much of a honeymoon with the media.

@page_break@> In recent years, the federal budget has increasingly become a political document, a Canadian version of the State of the Union address. This trend will probably continue because Harper will want to put some unconventional items in the budget as a way of addressing them quickly, including the proposed Federal Accountability Act. IE