Now that the raucous and ugly spring session of Parliament is finally over, let’s take a look ahead to this fall in the House of Commons.

A question that is bound to be on the minds of Liberals and Opposition parties alike is whether Paul Martin can continue the personal comeback that allowed him to cling to power in May and June.

A further universal question is: what is to become of Stephen Harper?

Finally, will Ralph Goodale be able to regain the cachet he had on Bay St. after his budget was amended at the last minute to buy support from the NDP?

Here’s what to watch:

> Liberals: It is interesting to follow how the media are perceiving the prime minister these days. As late as April, Martin seemed to be permanently labelled in the media as a hapless Mr. Dithers. By the end of the session, the focus of the media’s attention had shifted to the weaknesses of the leader of the Opposition.

Martin is now being portrayed in the media as someone calculating and ruthless enough to hold on to power.

The metamorphosis certainly says as much about the media as it does about Martin. The Parliamentary Press Gallery Association, with its high turnover, has very little institutional memory. Journalists covering several stories a day and constantly chasing sound bites have little time or energy for perspective. And, of course, journalists have the luxury of playing God with elected officials.

But still, Martin’s promise early in the Great Spring Offensive by the Conservatives and Bloc Québécois to hold a general election 30 days after Justice Gomery files his final report will probably be remembered as a defining moment of Martin’s time in office.

Suddenly, Harper looked ridiculous trying to force an election when one was coming in less than a year anyway. Suddenly, Martin gave Canadians some certainty in the midst of bewildering political chaos.

The defection of Belinda Stronach from Conservative ranks was an extra bonus.

True, Martin got off lucky — at least, so far — on the Grewal affair. Suspicions surrounding the whistle-blower diverted attention away from the roles of the health minister and Martin’s own chief of staff. But with the help of a small cabinet shuffle by the end of the summer, Martin will be able to go into the fall session with his worst days behind him.

> Conservatives: After holding the fate of a minority government in his hands this spring, Harper is going into the fall session looking very shaky indeed.

In time, Canadians will forgive Harper for trying to force a unwanted election upon them. But the Conservatives have a bigger problem than the sudden dip in the polls that resulted from Canadians’ wrath. What do he and his party stand for?

We know what he is against — mainly because the Liberals still control the public issues agenda.

No, the Conservatives should not hold a second founding policy convention. What the leader of the Opposition — for that matter, anyone seeking power — must do is capture the imagination of Canadians about a better future. So far, that hasn’t happened.

In addition, Harper is now under intense media scrutiny, as Martin was last fall, and the media will be preoccupied with his weaknesses and problems. This is why the recent string of departures of staff from Harper’s office received such inordinate attention.

Today, instead of being preoccupied with toppling the government, Harper’s thoughts are likely to be on avoiding being toppled himself as Conservative leader.

> Ralph goodale: A prime reason Paul Martin
was so effective as finance minister was that his boss, Jean Chrétien, was careful not to be seen as interfering.

After this spring’s NDP deal, Goodale will have an uphill battle to restore his credibility with financial markets.

Watch for a very busy Goodale this fall, as the minister visibly asserts his influence on the public agenda.

With the economy and the government’s balance sheet in such good shape, there won’t be much newsworthiness in fiscal policy. So the minister may turn to investor-protection issues, such as a national securities regulator.

Even the long-awaited bank merger guidelines will be turned into a consumer or investor-protection issue, at least before the coming election.

Ironically, Canada’s continuing string of fiscal surpluses could be Goodale’s greatest obstacle.

With the government committed to a winter election, we can be sure the Liberals will be in a generous mood with the voters.

@page_break@Of course, the spending announcements will continue because the NDP will have to be kept onside, and that will remind Canadians that fiscal policy is being run out of the Prime Minister’s Office.

Watch for either a budget update in November or a full budget in December. IE