Much changed in Quebec in 2012, with the disturbances set in motion by a proposed tuition hike and an election that saw the end of Jean Charest’s 28-year political career and the choice of Pauline Marois as Quebec’s first woman premier.

Indications are the fragile Parti Québécois (PQ) minority government that Marois leads will remain in power in 2013, having overcome its chief obstacle by passing a 2013-14 budget – by one vote – before the Quebec parliament adjourned before Christmas.

Charest’s likely successor for the provincial Liberal leadership is Philippe Couillard, the brain surgeon who was the party’s health minister until 2008, when he left to become a partner in PCP Management Inc. (a.k.a. Persistence Capital Partners), an equity fund investing in private clinics.

Against the background of the Liberal leadership race is the ongoing Charbonneau Commission into corruption in Quebec’s construction industry. That investigation has spilled over into politics, leading to the resignation of three Quebec mayors, including Montreal’s Gérald Tremblay and Gilles Vaillancourt in Laval. The commission is now turning to allegations of shady fundraising activities by the Quebec Liberal Party.

The other two Liberal leadership contenders, former finance minister Raymond Bachand and former transport minister Pierre Moreau, portray themselves as party loyalists, noting that Couillard left before the 2008 election and the corruption allegations.

But leaving may well be Couillard’s trump card. He was not there when the allegations emerged and Charest stalled almost three years before naming the Charbonneau Commission. Perhaps Charest was thinking of the fate of the federal Liberal party, after then-prime minister Paul Martin established the Gomery Commission after a corruption scandal.

Bachand, a former Péquiste, is running a strong campaign in what will be a traditional leadership race, with delegates chosen from Quebec’s 125 ridings.

Moreau, a relative newcomer, could end up playing kingmaker in a close race.

But the new Liberal leader will be busy in the rest of 2013, rebuilding the party -and could be on the defensive if the corruption allegations prove damaging to the party.

Marois will face her own challenges. The first acts of her PQ government were to roll back the tuition increase that had set off nightly demonstrations in the streets of Montreal and to abolish a special law, never used, that called for limits on demonstrations.

In February, the tuition issue returns with a summit on financing and access to higher education, which will include student and university representatives.

Marois will propose indexing fees. The more militant students will push for free tuition. Marois’ challenge is to resolve the issue that had helped her defeat Charest’s Liberals while retaining the support of the students and their supporters, who had helped to elect her.

The Liberals don’t seem eager for a new election in 2013. But with the PQ pursuing a combative agenda despite being a minority government, an election could come sooner than the PQ would like.

And the Charbonneau Commission’s mandate dates back to 1996, when the PQ was last in power. Marois may have her own corruption woes to deal with.

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