Dramatic environmental changes in the cold, dark waters of Canada’s East Coast are shifting the balance of ocean life, with significant consequences for Newfoundland and Labrador’s fisheries.

These changes are only the latest chapter in the tangled history of local fisheries. Until the 1960s, cod populations were strong. But the introduction of factory-freezer trawlers by European companies in the 1970s greatly weakened cod stocks.

Unfortunately, the imposition by Canada of a 200-mile marine economic zone in 1977 did little to protect fish populations because Canadian fleets moved in to occupy the space left vacant by foreigners. In 1992, a Canadian moratorium on commercial fishing of groundfish species on the Grand Banks and along the northeast coasts of Newfoundland and Labrador resulted in 35,000 lost jobs.

The effect on rural fisheries-dependent communities has been profound, but it could have been worse. That’s because snow crab and shrimp populations surged as cod stocks fell to less than 2% of levels recorded in the 1960s. These shellfish species previously had been of negligible economic importance despite reaping high prices in the marketplace, chiefly because they were preyed upon by cod.

In the wake of the moratorium, both fishing-fleet owners and processors invested heavily in capital related to exploiting the burgeoning shrimp and snow crab fisheries. And, by 2006, shellfish landings had risen to 200 million tonnes annually.

After 2008, shellfish landings began to decline, although, thanks to strong prices, shrimp and snow crab contributed 83% of the fishery industry’s total value in 2013. But, due to concerns over shellfish stocks, the federal government recently began cutting quotas, particularly for shrimp.

At the same time, the cod are recovering. According to a Department of Fisheries and Oceans Canada report released in November, cod are benefiting from a warming ocean, the fishing ban and healthier stocks of capelin – a key food for cod.

The industry is bracing for further quota cuts to shrimp and snow crab. But a switch to cod is not immediately on the horizon: fisheries scientists believe cod stocks are around only 20% of the level required to safely exploit a commercial fishery, although many fishermen question the quality of the scientific data collected.

Even if Ottawa does allow a limited fishery soon, cod would be unlikely to make up for the loss of shellfish, which currently fetch stronger prices in world markets. Today’s fishery also differs greatly from that of the early 1990s; it’s now dominated by million-dollar boats built and financed to process snow crab and shrimp. Perversely, growing populations of cod are widely seen to be a problem for this fishery, as cod consume the shellfish. For now, at least, fishing enterprises will be challenged by reduced shellfish quotas and the reluctance of Ottawa to reopen the cod fishery.

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