Yes, the emergence of Justin Trudeau as a serious contender for the federal Liberal leadership is another example of the party’s messiah complex as it desperately searches for someone to lead them out of the political wilderness.

But even if the former school teacher does turn out to have the political gravitas of the other Justin (Bieber), as some of his detractors claim, Trudeau’s mere candidacy for Liberal leadership will have serious ramifications for Canadian politics.

As for claims that this Trudeau is just Trudeau Lite, a word of caution. Back in 2004, there was another neophyte leader not much older than Trudeau is now. People in his own party wondered about his lack of professional experience.

Beyond politics, he had only been the head of a marginalized, right-wing lobby group. He had been a Reform MP for four years before quitting politics in a huff after a disagreement with the party leader. Then, he was elected in a 2002 byelection in another riding. The ruling Liberals thought he was just another lightweight, much to their chagrin.

That neophyte was, of course, Stephen Harper – and nobody is wondering about his political gravitas now. Indeed, Harper is likely to leave a political legacy that could rival that of Pierre Trudeau.

Rather than experience, the key question about a leadership candidate is whether they will be able to grow in the job. Some have. Some haven’t.

Justin Trudeau has made a good start in his leadership campaign by being the only prominent Liberal so far to acknowledge unequivocally that the national energy policy of his father’s reign was a disastrous mistake that should never be repeated.

Another popular perception we should dispense with is that the younger Trudeau is a shoo-in for the Liberal leadership. Don’t discount the party’s right wing.

The Trudeaumania of 1968 that propelled Trudeau the elder to the party leadership is more myth than reality. It took five ballots for Pierre Trudeau to win the Liberal leadership. In the end, he narrowly defeated Robert Winters.

Winters was so right-wing with his opposition to the social programs of Lester Pearson, he would make Jim Flaherty look like a tax-and-spend socialist.

Had Winters not entered the leadership race at a late date, and had the party’s right wing not been so divided, Pierre Trudeau might have been remembered as a guy who wore sandals into the House of Commons and gave good quotes to the media.

So, let’s look at a few scenarios:

– Trudeau wins party leadership and goes on to be prime minister in 2015. Stop laughing. It could happen. Trudeau the younger, like his father, was elected during a period so fractious and nasty it was turning people off politics altogether.

In the period between 1965 and 1968, Canadians – particularly younger voters – were so fed up that political experience was more of a liability than an asset. We could be at that point again.

Pierre Trudeau had demographics going for him. The 1968 election was the first for the baby-boom generation. Trudeau’s son could be able to ride a smaller but similar wave of baby boomers’ children.

– Trudeau wins party leadership and keeps stephen harper in power. At this point, this scenario looks most likely. There is no doubt that the media attention devoted to Thomas Mulcair in the past eight months has bolstered the New Democratic Party (NDP) in the polls. The emergence of a new face who caused a five-point surge for the Liberals in the Nanos poll in the first hours of his leadership campaign is bound to shift media attention away from the NDP.

Trudeau could very easily split the anti-Harper vote and give the Conservatives another majority in 2015. However, since journalists often like to play God with politicians’ careers (just ask Paul Martin), the media could decide Trudeau has grown tiresome and go back to fawning over Mulcair.

– Trudeau loses leadership; mulcair gains; tories get new leader: Harper may be firmly in charge of his party, but the Conservatives won’t go into another election with a leader who has been seriously wounded by Mulcair. Recently, former Conservative cabinet minister Jim Prentice criticized the Harper government for mishandling aboriginal reaction to resources projects.

Was that a shot across somebody’s bow?

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