Issues for the victorious party

– Rising real estate

If there is a motherhood issue in Canadian politics, it is home ownership. No political party will dare question it, even though we have been getting an increasingly scary litany of warnings that Canadian real estate is greatly overvalued.

In fact, Conservative leader Stephen Harper said early in the election campaign that he would aim to increase home ownership to 72.5% of Canadian households from the current record level of 69% after years of low interest rates. Sixty-nine per cent, by the way, was the peak of home ownership among American households in 2004, before the U.S. housing bubble burst.

Thankfully, Canadians tend to be conscientious about paying off their mortgages, arrears are at low levels and no one among regulators or bankers would even countenance the kind of mortgage lending that developed during the time of the Clinton and Bush administrations.

But what would happen if interest rates were to start to rise, which they will at some point?

Ottawa will have to address a balanced housing policy that gives Canadians a wider range of housing options, including rental and social housing in addition to home ownership. The Bank of Canada will need to monitor and act independently of the government regarding interest rates.

– A perfect demographic storm

You have been reading a lot of articles lately about Canada’s aging population.

Expect to hear and read more about how young Canadians are getting the short end of government policy after 10 years of political obsession about spending more on seniors, who vote in high numbers, while cutting taxes.

During the recent election campaign, spending proposals by all parties benefiting seniors outnumbered proposals for the under-45 crowd by far, according to analysis by advocacy group Generation Squeeze.

That preferential treatment is likely to add to the grumbling – for the most part, justified – coming from the millennial generation about lingering student loans, overpriced tuition and housing up by $116,000 after inflation since 2005.

And although Canadians aged 65 and over now account for almost half of all health spending while representing 14% of the population, no level of government is ready for the aging baby-boomer population.

Go to just about any hospital in Canada today and you will find 15% of the beds occupied by seniors who no longer require acute care but have no place to go because we haven’t been investing in long-term care facilities, home care and community support. This is the chief reason that getting a hip replacement takes nine months.

In provinces with older populations, such as New Brunswick – where 18.3% of the population is over 65 – more than 25% of hospital beds are tied up this way.

The coming years will be no time to be arguing about whether social policy is a federal or provincial responsibility.

– Economy – post-oil

Last June, at the Paris Air Show, there was not a single cabinet minister from Canada, even though this country has the third-largest aerospace sector on the planet. In previous years, the Paris Air Show was a must on the calendars of several Canadian ministers because of the importance of aerospace to the economy.

Not long ago, more automobiles were rolling off Ontario assembly lines than in Michigan. Now, Canada produces fewer cars than Mexico does. Yet, Ottawa has been shrugging this off.

With the population aging, there now are five workers for every retired Canadian. In 15 years, there will be about two workers for each retiree.

Simply waiting for the energy sector to start hiring again or for the federal government to continue to brag about our economic position in relation to most of the world won’t be enough. Nor will continuing to sign free trade agreements without worrying about our trade deficit be enough.

There is a serious need in Ottawa for some creative thinking about what Canadians will be doing for a living in future years.

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