Harper exploits short memories

The renewable energy sector now employs more Canadians than the oilsands, according to a study in October 2014. Yet, very few Canadians seem to have noticed.

In the years before Stephen Harper became prime minister in 2006, all of the above developments would have been big news, particularly with the two auto stories about which the opposition parties would have railed against the government.

As Harper begins his ninth year in power in an election year, Canada is obsessed with the future of the oil industry, the price of crude and our falling currency. The words “tarsands” have been expunged from the national vocabulary to be replaced by “oilsands.”

Today, Canadian productivity still lags. Canadians are carrying far too much debt. And health costs are draining provincial treasuries. Yet, debate on how we are going to get oil exports to the markets of Asia and Europe is sucking the oxygen from debate of all other economic issues.

Canada may be diversified enough not to fit the definition of a petrodollar state. But a growing number of Canadians think we are one and that our economic future depends on the extraction of its natural resources.

Less than a generation ago, Canadians were embarrassed by our dependence on natural resources. Today, natural resources are seen as the path to prosperity.

A remarkable thing about the Harper years in power is the change in Canadians’ perceptions about themselves and their country. That change can be attributed to Harper’s ability to dominate political narrative.

Harper, who promised that Canada would become an energy superpower upon taking office, has yet to produce a new pipeline or anything else to lighten our dependence upon the American oil market. Yet, perceptions of the ability to manage the economy remain the Harper government’s major political asset despite months of so-so growth.

Behind that political advantage, of course, is the Harper government’s ability to control political debate to the point of rewriting history. When taking office, reduction of hospital wait times was one of Harper’s five top priorities. Now, his government insists health matters are the provinces’ problem.

During yearend interviews, Harper took credit for returning to balanced budgets after years of deficits without being challenged, even though his government has yet to report an actual surplus to Parliament. He implied his government will be the first in some time to balance a budget.

The reality is that Harper inherited a $13-billion surplus from the Liberals and that the governments of Jean Chrétien and Paul Martin reported budget surpluses in three-quarters of their combined 13 years in power.

But the public has a short memory, and Harper has been good at exploiting it. This is a prime reason why Harper has come back from the politically dead in the past four months.

At one point, Harper was 12 percentage points behind Justin Trudeau in the polls. Now, the two are neck and neck. The polls show clearly that voters are shifting left, which is why Harper, ever the political contortionist, is borrowing from the New Democratic Party with junk legislation to make Canadian prices equal to their U.S. counterparts and continuing efforts to impose a fourth major telecommunications carrier whether the market will support one or not. Harper also is starting to distance himself from the oil industry. He has managed to turn foreign policy into an asset from a liability.

At this point, unless things change, the Conservatives are headed for re-election as a minority government this year. But as pollster Bruce Anderson has noted, Harper is as challenged as he is competitive. There are five nasty court cases ahead, including Mike Duffy’s.

Should Harper win a minority this year, his party will wonder if Canadians will trust him with a majority again.

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