before quebec’s april upset election, when Pauline Marois’ Parti Québécois (PQ) went from being the front-runner to the party’s worst showing since 1970, Carlos Leitão was chief economist of the Laurentian Bank of Canada.
What pushed Leitão to leave his McGill College Avenue suite at the bank in Montreal for the Second Empire courthouse in Quebec City, which houses his new offices as Quebec’s finance minister, was the PQ’s proposed “Charter of Quebec Values.”
Portugal-born Leitão had no patience for that divisive charter, which pitted the old-stock Quebecers whom Marois had tried, and failed, to woo back to her party against Quebecers who did not share the PQ vision.
Philippe Couillard, the new Liberal premier, has offered Leitão a chance to use his skills to explain the new government’s economic plans, in both French and English.
But Leitão may have painted an overly rosy picture of the province’s finances. Leitão finished with a Portuguese proverb: “Esperança sempre entra quando deixamos a porta aberta” – hope always comes through an open door.
“This budget opens doors,” Leitão explained. “I am convinced that it will be a messenger of hope for all Quebecers.”
Hope? There’s nothing much that is upbeat in Leitão’s 2014-15 budget, which is designed to eradicate Quebec’s deficit – $3.1 billion at the end of March 2014 – by 2015-16. The deficit for the fiscal year that began in April is estimated at $2.35 billion. That’s after $10.8 billion for debt servicing and a $2.7-billion cut in program spending. A further cut in program spending of $2.4-billion is planned for 2015-16.
With general economic growth not expected to be robust, most of the deficit- reduction measures are coming from cuts. These include a public-sector hiring freeze over the next two years. In addition, the increase in total spending this year will be kept to 1.8% and will drop to an enamel-grinding 0.7% in 2015-16. And Quebec’s subsidies to business will be trimmed by 20% this year.
However, there will be a tax break for small and medium-sized businesses in the manufacturing sector. Their provincial income tax rate was reduced to 6% from 8% this year, and next year it will slide to 4%, a rate comparable to that in other provinces.
Leitão, who described this budget as “transitional,” also announced the creation of an ongoing program review committee, which has a mandate to evaluate government programs to reduce their cost and scope, with the goal of bringing Quebec’s public spending into line with that of other provinces.
The new Liberal government also must renegotiate the collective agreements with about 430,000 public-sector employees, including teachers and health-care workers. Salaries and benefits for this group represent about 60% of the provincial government’s spending on programs.
Leitão’s spending figures for this year also assume that an agreement will be reached with Quebec’s doctors to put off their $540-million pay increase, planned for this year. It’s a busy agenda for a new government that has promised to “take care of the real business.”
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