THE WINDS OF CHANGE ARE BLOWing in Quebec, but the Sept. 4 election has left the future unclear.

In choosing Pauline Marois, Quebec has become the fourth province in Canada with a woman in the top job.

But by denying Marois a majority, voters also have made another choice: they do not want the referendum on sovereignty that the Parti Québécois (PQ) leader had campaigned for openly.

Marois will try to rekindle nationalist fervour, but she will have to work with the Liberal and Coalition Avenir Québec opposition parties to hold on to power.

And a shooting incident, which left one man dead outside the Montreal theatre in which Marois and her supporters had been savouring their victory, provided stark contrast to the new premier’s message that problems can be solved by working together.

The outcome – casting out Jean Charest and putting his party into opposition – means a leadership change is ahead.

The pollsters, noting Charest’s 70% dissatisfaction rating with voters, ranked his Liberals third before the election. Allegations of corruption and the wear and tear of nine years in power seemed insurmountable for Charest.

Yet, the still mighty Liberal machine had garnered votes, finishing with 31.2% of ballots cast -just 0.7% less than the PQ’s 31.9%.

Charest gambled on a summer election, knowing the Charbonneau commission Charest finally had named to look into the corruption allegations would resume hearings later in September and that embarrassing testimony could weaken his party.

Charest portrayed his Liberals as the party of jobs, the economy and democracy, and had cast Marois, who sided with students opposed to a $1,788 tuition hike, as the party of mob rule and referendums.

Liberal voters did turn out at the polls; but Charest lost his Sherbrooke seat, bringing down the curtain on a remarkable political career.

First elected – on Sept. 4, 1984 – as a Brian Mulroney federal Tory, Charest was one of two Conservatives to survive the 1993 election, becoming party leader and winning 20 seats in 1997 before he was recruited by the Quebec provincial Liberals as their leader in 1998.

Charest won the most votes in four Quebec elections – in 1998, 2003, 2007 and 2008. But because Liberal strength is concentrated in Montreal, Lucien Bouchard’s PQ won more seats and a majority government in the 1998 election.

Charest’s heritage is the Plan Nord, tapping into the mineral wealth of northern Quebec. A federalist, Charest also made gains for Quebec the PQ could only envy: recognition of the Quebec “nation” within the federation; agreements with France on manpower mobility; and an international profile for Quebec as being more serious about greenhouse gases than Ottawa is.

The recent Quebec election also cast a new player onto the Quebec stage. François Legault, the former Air Transat executive turned PQ minister, managed to capture 27% of the vote and elect 19 members of his new Coalition Avenir Québec.

Legault’s position is that the 30-year battle between federalism and sovereignty has been a waste and Quebec should focus on putting its own house in order. Quebecers may face a new election in 2013.

© 2012 Investment Executive. All rights reserved.