THE POLLS HAVE BEEN SO close in the marathon campaign of 2015, this election has been the Tories’ to lose.

One could be forgiven, however, for thinking the Conservatives were working hard to do just that.

The governing party went into this extra-long election campaign after leveraging every tactical advantage an incumbent could possibly have. Yet, they have been struggling in the polls.

Indeed, all the Conservatives’ advantages – a gargantuan war chest, last year’s rewrite of the election rules in their favour, a divided Opposition and the continued ability to buy voters with their own money – may be working against the Tories.

In general, handing out expanded baby bonus cheques on the eve of an election while wearing a Tory-blue golf shirt, complete with party insignia – as Pierre Polivevre, the minister for employment and social largesse, did – is not a good idea. Polivevre even proclaimed Christmas had come in July. More crass behaviour like that might turn out to mean Christmas will come in October for one of the Opposition parties.

As the campaign goes into its final weeks, Prime Minister Stephen Harper still is struggling to tell his story and drown out a litany of distractions, ranging from the Mike Duffy trial over Senate expenses to the Syrian refugee crisis. Even before Harper could begin the day’s campaign events on Labour Day, the party was forced to announce the dismissal of two Toronto candidates because of disgusting behaviour.

When a shocked world was fixated on the photo of a toddler on a Turkish beach, Immigration Minister Chris Alexander responded to the resulting crisis in what appeared to most people to be a particularly cold-hearted way.

The Conservatives’ handling of the refugee file is all the more puzzling, as both Opposition parties offered a gracious way out by suspending the campaign for the three party leaders to sit down together and work out a non-partisan plan for Canada to admit as many Syrian refugees as possible. Harper could have shown statesmanlike qualities. But he has been too stubborn to take the offer.

As municipal mayors and premiers pledge aid for refugees, and ordinary Canadians come forward to sponsor families, Harper has allowed himself to be isolated – and on the wrong side of history.

When Statistics Canada reported the economy contracted in the first half of the year, constituting a recession, Finance Minister Joe Oliver was missing in action. Harper himself was dismissive, even though his government legally defined “recession” as two straight losing quarters in the 2015 omnibus budget bill.

The Conservative campaign has been marred by screw-ups and amateurish behaviour. For example, somebody had the bright idea to pull several Boy Scouts spontaneously into a photo op with the Prime Minister. That prompted a rebuke from Boy Scouts Canada.

You know you are not running a good campaign when the Ford brothers step forward to offer Doug as Stephen Harper’s replacement.

The last time the Tories had trouble getting their messages out because of distractions like this was in the 2004 campaign – the campaign remembered as the one Harper should have won but lost because of misconduct of supporters.

But as long as Canadians can’t reach a consensus on which Opposition leader would make the best anti-Harper, the Conservatives have a chance of salvaging a minority government. This campaign could be remembered as the one Harper should have lost but won despite the conduct of his own party.

Imagine what might have happened in 1963, when John Diefenbaker was the incumbent, had the Liberals and the old CCF party (the forerunner of the NDP) been deadlocked like this. Dief might have been prime minister into the 1970s.

Harper does have some impressive achievements to leave behind, such as the Korean free trade agreement, the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement with Europe and a national securities regulator.

But even if Harper squeaks out a small victory, this election has done him and his party considerable damage.

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