The headlines might say the Conservative government of Prime Minister Stephen Harper has either fallen behind the New Democratic Party (NDP) or is in a statistical tie in the polls. And, yes, much of the NDP’s polling strength is due to the usual bounce that voters bestow in the months following a leadership convention.

But dig down a bit in the polling data, and you’ll find signs the monolith of support that propelled the Tories into a majority government has developed some structural cracks. Male voters over 40 today are far more likely to vote NDP – something most of them would not have dreamed of doing just a couple of years ago. Female voters, traditionally the strength of the Liberals, are also moving to the NDP.

Yet, 10 years ago, more than half the electorate had said they would never support the NDP.

It is natural for a government to fall off in popularity by a few points in the months after it wins a majority. But, as polling analyst Eric Grenier has pointed out, the Tories have fallen twice as far in the polls since the 2011 election as they did after both the 2008 and 2006 elections.

Predictions a year ago about the Orange Crush quickly receding, especially in Quebec, have not come to fruition. If anything, the NDP’s support is accelerating and widening in the polls; meanwhile, support for the Liberals has been virtually static.

Unless the government’s fortunes change drastically before the 2015 election, there is a real possibility of the Conservatives reverting back to minority status – just as the Liberals did in 2004 – as voters start to dip their toes in the orange pool.

Should voters become more comfortable with the NDP in the 18-month probationary period that minority Parliaments provide, they may give the Official Opposition a chance to govern.

Voters did the same in 2006 by giving the Conservatives, a product of the newly merged Progressive Conservative (PC) and Alliance parties, a minority mandate. (Remember, very few of us countenanced the NDP forming the Official Opposition 15 months ago.)

There is no reason to believe the political landscape will stop shifting now. Canada is one of the few democracies left with a political system of at least three major parties.

If the Liberals were still the second party, all the Tories would have to do is aim the spin machine and destroy the Opposition leader’s reputation. So far, attacks on the NDP by the spin machine have been pathetic; in fact, they may have had an effect opposite to that intended.

This is probably because of ambivalence. An effective personal attack on Opposition leader Thomas Mulcair could easily hasten a merger of the Liberals and the NDP before 2015. The Tories probably want the Liberals to stick around for awhile, just as the Liberals would have preferred to have the old PCs around for the 2004 election.

The Tories’ majority victory of 2011 has not been the start of a new era in Ottawa. If anything, the party is showing the same sort of cracks and gaffes that aging governments show near the end of their life cycle. The Tories probably don’t want to admit this, which is why Bev Oda and Christian Paridis are still in cabinet despite all their peccadillos.

Mulcair can be reckless with his mouth, as he has demonstrated with his remarks about the inflated Canadian petrodollar. Obviously, he is trying to frame the prime minister as the oil industry’s man in Ottawa. At this point, however, Mulcair appears to have enough political capital to withstand his mistake.

So far, the Tories have had no problem with antagonizing large elements of the population. But as long as they can own the brand of being the best managers of the economy, they will hang on to suburban Ontario and most of the West, which will be enough for another majority.

Should the economy continue in its stop-and-go pattern, and should a litany of scandal finally eat into that reputation for good management, the Tories could very well need their old nemesis – the Liberals – in order to stay in power. Ironic, isn’t it?

The Official Opposition is, after all, the government in waiting. And, in a two-party system, the likelihood of an NDP government becomes all the more inevitable. IE

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