It’s the morning after the night before.
British Columbia’s New Democratic Party (NDP) is stunned over the unexpected whipping it received from the B.C. Liberals in the May 14 provincial election, while the winners welcome their fourth consecutive term of majority government.
Now, pollsters are quietly re-registering for polling school. Never had so many pollsters, pundits and many of their media followers been so wrong. When the 28-day campaign started, pollsters had the NDP with at least a 20-point lead and solidly entrenched as the government-in-waiting. That lead shrank to about 10 points in the final days, but voters were advised that a change in government would happen anyway.
Voters had other ideas, obviously. Their thoughts centred on economic stability in uncertain times. And Liberal leader Christy Clark played to those concerns while staging a comeback, one perhaps even more unexpected than Alberta Premier Alison Redford’s upset win in 2012.
Voters often saw Clark campaigning on the nightly news in a hard hat while touring an industrial plant. In TV commercials and speeches, Clark constantly linked a strong economy and jobs that together would fund health, education, etc. The message was simple, and Clark never wavered.
But NDP leader Adrian Dix flip-flopped on some of his party’s policies and basically said no to all pipeline expansion in B.C. on environmental grounds.
That played poorly in B.C.’s north, where pipelines mean jobs and where, consequently, the Liberals made impressive election gains on the way to their 50 seats in the 85-seat legislature.
Dix’s past haunts him as well. As an aide to former NDP premier Glen Clark in the 1990s, Dix was caught altering documents during an RCMP investigation and then lying about it. Last year, Dix was caught riding the Skytrain in Vancouver without purchasing a ticket.
Many voters didn’t trust Dix, but most pollsters and members of the media missed this signal.
The media, in fact, spent much of the campaign playing repeater, not reporter. They seldom questioned poll data and, while their slings and arrows were constantly aimed at Clark and her Liberals – often for the sins of her predecessor, Gordon Campbell – the policies of Dix and the NDP were seldom scrutinized seriously.
B.C. voters were much smarter. Perhaps they’re craftier as well, because we may also have witnessed the return of a B.C. voting phenomenon from the 1960s and ’70s, known then as “the 20-second Socred.”
This term refers to voters who publicly declared no support for the governing Social Credit party of longtime former premier WAC Bennett but then quietly became party supporters only during the 20 seconds it took to vote.
But, as stunning as the 2013 election was, the real work now begins for Clark’s government. First, she’ll have to win in a byelection because she was narrowly defeated by the NDP in her own Point Grey riding.
Then, the new government will have to tackle the big, complicated issues – pipelines, health care, education, transportation, etc. – many of which will require massive amounts of funding from government coffers that are drying up, primarily due to falling prices in B.C.’s resources-based economy.
But, for the moment, Clark is being called the Comeback Kid. The pollsters are being called back to the classroom.
© 2013 Investment Executive. All rights reserved.
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