If there is a recurring theme for the investment outlook for Canadian market sectors other than resources and financials, it is the impact of the strong Canadian dollar. Money managers are looking for Canadian companies that won’t be at a disadvantage once U.S. dollars are translated into C$.

Most fund managers surveyed for Investment Executive’s Outlook 2008 assume the Canadian dollar will hover around parity for 2008 and beyond. Even Martin Ferguson, manager of Mawer New Canada Fund for Calgary-based Mawer Investment Management Ltd. , who normally refuses to speculate about such things, starts his Monte Carlo simulations with the C$ and US$ at parity.

With that in mind, Canadian companies without translation risk are finding favour. Managers like companies that have costs as well as revenue in US$, because currency translation on both sides of the ledger makes for a natural hedge. If firms have costs in C$ and revenue in US$ and then the US$ slides lower vis-à-vis the C$, the value of revenue will drop while costs remain stable.

Given the already high C$, Canada’s manufacturing heartland in southern Ontario and Quebec is expected to suffer. Growth in these provinces will stutter along at 1% at best. The western provinces, led by Alberta, will continue to enjoy strong demand for materials, energy and resources, as long as the U.S. doesn’t dip into recession. Overall, the Canadian economic picture is for slower growth.

A recession in the U.S. could upset the apple cart, however. While asset allocation among Canadian equity funds has already become decidedly defensive and is unlikely to shift, Gavin Graham, chief investment officer of Toronto-based Guardian Group of Funds Ltd. , says finding stocks that would retain their value in that environment will be challenging.

On the other hand, Glenn Paradis is less concerned. The senior portfolio manager at AEGON Capital Management Inc. in Toronto notes that Canada is not as dependent on the U.S. now that China and India are taking their share of Canada’s agricultural products and raw materials. But with those opportunities come other risks — for example, inflation in China. If China has to tighten monetary policy severely to keep inflation under control, its growth will slow — and that will affect demand for Canadian goods.

Here’s a sector-by-sector breakdown, with some stocks to watch:

> Industrials. Money managers are overweighting the industrials sector. A favourite is Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd., whose stock price recently moved downward. It is Western Canada-oriented and has shipping routes to ports that lead to China and India. “You have grains to ship and materials such as potash because you need fertilizer,” says Graham.

Other money managers agree, even though most prefer Canadian National Railway Co. to CP, based on the strength of CN’s management. But CN’s exposure to the U.S. economy makes it a riskier bet.

Paradis likes Ag Growth Income Fund, a play on the agricultural sector in the West. “It supplies grain farming equipment,” he says, “and is attached to the agricultural capital expenditure cycle.” Although Ag’s stock can be illiquid, it has a good dividend and strong growth prospects based on demand from China and India.

Money managers are split on Finning International Inc., a supplier of equipment to oilsands players. Finning’s stock price has slipped a little on its earnings outlook. Richard Nield, portfolio manager for AIM Management Group Inc. in Austin, Tex., and manager of AIM Canadian Premier Fund for AIM Funds Management Inc. in Toronto, is heeding that signal. But Paul Taylor, CIO at BMO Investments Inc. in Toronto, is impressed with Finning’s back orders and calls the firm “a well-run operation.”

> Telecommunications. Money managers tend to be at least market-weighted in telecommunications, with a marked preference for Rogers Communications Inc., which seems to be winning the wireless race in Canada. In fact, several managers took advantage of the weakness in Rogers’ stock price after regulators opened up wireless competition in the autumn of 2007 and bought shares. Paradis insists Rogers is still good value at about $40 a share.

Fred Pynn, president and chief investment officer at Calgary-based Bissett & Associates Investment Management Ltd. , is also a fan: “Rogers already has the GSM [global system for mobile communications] capability that puts it at an advantage compared to competitors. Its balance sheet has turned around completely and it is now paying debt off. It is in a position to raise its dividend quite aggressively over the next three to five years.”

@page_break@Other managers think Telus Corp. deserves consideration, noting opportunities for all wireless providers, as wireless penetration in Canada is still well below that of the U.S. and Britain.

Astral Media Inc. is another core holding for AIM’s Nield, even though it is vulnerable to cyclical downturns in advertising budgets. Astral’s shares have been flat since it acquired a large radio broadcasting portfolio from Standard Radio Inc. early in the year, but Nield is optimistic. “It’s a very high-margin business,” he says. “I think that integration will go well.”

He considers Corus Entertain-ment Inc., which is also vulnerable to cyclical ad budgets, another “solid company.”

> Consumer Staples. The Canadian consumer staples sector doesn’t offer the depth and breadth of stocks that U.S. and global markets offer, but managers are nevertheless unanimously overweighted in this defensive sector.

Shoppers Drug Mart Corp. is an obvious choice, but you’re lucky to catch it trading at less than fair value. “Shoppers is on the expensive side,” says Paradis, echoing other managers. “But to get that attractive growth profile, transparency, a good, solid management team and good execution, I don’t think you can go far wrong.”

Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc., which owns convenience stores across North America, is an alternative to Shoppers, but money managers point out that its U.S. operations are just performing at par.

Graham suggests Saputo Inc. “It has cut the costs of cheese manufacturing,” he says. “That’s great. And it has cheese on half the pizzas in North America.”

Managers generally shy away from Loblaw Cos. Ltd. It is unproven coming out of a restructuring and, ultimately, it will have to compete with Wal-Mart Stores Inc. But Loblaw’s stock price already reflects this, offering upside potential should it exceed expectations.

> Consumer Discretionary. This sector is loaded with companies that don’t really fit their billing, including Tim Hortons Inc., which, many managers note, functions as a staple. As a result, some managers are overweighted in what is theoretically a late-cycle sector that would normally be avoided when economic growth slows.

You could make the same argument about Canadian Tire Corp. But, says Pynn: “These guys are very good operators.” He notes that the company’s stock price slipped throughout the autumn, bringing it to a “much more interesting price point.”

Several managers like Gildan Activewear Inc., the low-cost T-shirt maker, which recently added sock manufacturing to its business. “That’s not particularly economi-cally sensitive,” notes Pynn.

Gildan has a higher barrier of entry to its business than one might expect because of its efficient offshore manufacturing, adds Nield: “It pays low wages and has cost advantage over competitors such as Fruit of the Loom.”

Nield also likes Transat A.T. Inc. Canadians are taking their high C$ and buying trips to the Caribbean, for example, in US$: “It is one of the few Canadian-based companies that are benefiting from the strong C$.”

BMO’s Taylor likes Thomson Corp., the data provider that has a deal to acquire Reuters Inc. Regulators are reviewing the deal from a competitive market standpoint. Taylor says the stock “pays a decent dividend” and, while its data desks are somewhat vulnerable to a U.S. downturn, it fits into the “defensive” theme. “It has a tremendous franchise,” he says, “and it is a key supplier to the business.”

> Information Technology. There’s really only one stock in the Canadian large-cap space in this sector: Waterloo, Ont.-based Research in Motion Inc., maker of the BlackBerry handset.

Pynn — previously a long-time holder of RIM stock through his “growth at a reasonable price” mandate — has completely sold off his holdings. He admits he would love to hold it again and is watching for price anomalies.

Despite the price, Taylor found reason to buy RIM in the third quarter of 2007. What was a concept stock a few years ago is now proven, he says. RIM has a visible, growing earnings stream and strong market share in a space with few competitors. “We would argue there’s a compelling case for it gaining market share as we go forward in the massive handset market three to six years,” Taylor says. “It still represents compelling value at these levels.”

> Real Estate. This is an expensive financial services subsector in which most of the money managers canvassed aren’t invested. AEGON’s Paradis does like Alberta-based REIT Boardwalk Equities Inc., even though the housing sector in Western Canada may be flattening. “It’s not overly expensive,” he says, “if you assume that the economy out West will continue to do well, which we do.”

> Utilities And Health Care. Although these sectors are typically defensive, there are few options in the Canadian marketplace. The managers surveyed had little or no exposure to these sectors in their portfolios. IEpresents a challenge