Don’t expect dovish monetary policy under presumed new head of the U.S. Federal Reserve Board, Janet Yellen, says CIBC World Markets Inc. in a new report.
Amid the news that U.S. President Barack Obama has decided to nominate Yellen, the Fed’s vice chairwoman, as the next chairwoman of the Fed, CIBC says that the move will “not usher in a new era of more dovish policy for the Fed as some in markets may fear.” It says that Yellen’s voting record has matched current chair, Ben Bernanke, and her speeches have largely echoed the themes of her predecessor, too, it says.
“Bonds may see a temporary boost on the appointment of Yellen,” it says, pending U.S. Senate confirmation, which is expected in 2014, “given her support of the Fed’s overall dovish stance. However, assuming an amicable passing of the current debt ceiling and budgetary deadlock, we see longer-term risks of a sell-off as the drag from fiscal policy eases in 2014, giving even a Yellen-led Fed justification to scale back bond-buying by early next year.”
While she has given speeches that press the need for easy policy, CIBC says, “Yellen is no easy-money ideologue.” Rather, it says that she has been following the Fed’s overall dovish stance, given the current conditions. And, a look at her voting record also shows that she has generally voted in line with the Fed majority, including Bernanke.
“One factor explaining Yellen’s support of the Fed’s easy policy is the continued stagnation in the jobs market,” it says, noting that she has shown concern about the effects of long-term unemployment. “Rather than a hawkish/dovish ideological slant, the cold hard fact that the U.S.; jobs market has yet to show signs of measurable improvement is likely the key factor motivating Yellen’s support for continued QE bond buying,” it says
While the fiscal uncertainty continues to cloud the outlook for U.S. economic growth. Assuming that those political issues are overcome, CIBC says that the U.S. economy could see a 3+% pace next year. “That substantial improvement in the outlook for economic activity and hiring could see the Fed begin to scale back the pace of its asset purchases by early 2014, to the surprise of many in markets who may be erroneously expecting more caution from a Yellen-led Fed,” it says.