Citing improving market sentiment, and a weaker U.S. dollar, the World Bank boosted its oil price forecast for 2016 on Tuesday.
Washington, D.C.-based organization now expects crude oil prices to reach US$41 per barrel (bbl) in 2016, up from its previous forecast of US$37/bbl.
“We expect slightly higher prices for energy commodities over the course of the year as markets rebalance after a period of oversupply,” says John Baffes, senior economist at the World Bank, in a statement.
“Still, energy prices could fall further if OPEC increases production significantly and non-OPEC production does not fall as fast as expected,” Baffes notes.
Despite the brighter forecast for crude, the main commodity indices tracked by the World Bank are expected to decline in 2016 compared with 2015.
Even with today’s forecast revision, energy prices, including oil, natural gas and coal, are now expected to fall 19.3% year over year (compared with the 24.7% drop that was forecast in January).
Non-energy commodities are expected to decline by 5.1% this year, which represents a downward revision from the 3.7% decline that it forecast in January.
The World Bank attributes the overall weakness in commodity prices to, “… persistently elevated supplies, and in the case of industrial commodities, which include energy, metals, and agricultural raw materials, weak growth prospects in emerging market and developing economies.”