The east-west economic disparity will narrow only slightly in 2008, according to the Conference Board of Canada’s latest Metropolitan Outlook.

The 27 Canadian census metropolitan areas (CMAs) were ranked simultaneously and the five fastest-growing cities in Canada will still be west of Ontario.

“In 2007, only two of the top 10 positions in the overall economic growth rankings were held by CMAs located east of Manitoba; this year four eastern Canadian CMAs are expected to make the cut,” said Mario Lefebvre, director, centre for municipal studies.

With real GDP growth forecast to reach 4.2% this year, according to the Board, Calgary is expected to match its growth performance in 2007 when it was the third-fastest growing CMA in the country behind St. John’s and Saskatoon. Strong energy demand, furious construction activity and robust consumer spending growth will continue to drive Calgary’s outlook, while Edmonton’s economy will be fuelled by stronger energy output and solid domestic demand. As a result, Edmonton’s real GDP is forecast to grow by 4% this year.

“Calgary and Edmonton will remain in a league of their own in 2008. Winnipeg, Vancouver, and Abbotsford are also expected to emerge as strong performers this year, with all three CMAs posting economic growth of more than 3%,” said Lefebvre.

The report expects Winnipeg, which posted its fastest rate of growth in ten years in 2007, to see growth ease only slightly from 3.9% in 2007 to 3.4% this year. The strong economy has led to solid job creation, which has helped the CMA attract more immigrants. This is good news for Winnipeg’s economic potential, according to the Board.

Strong consumer spending and a flurry of non-residential construction projects will propel real GDP growth to 3.3% in Vancouver in 2008, says the Outlook. However, increasing prices, which will erode affordability even further, will squeeze housing demand.

Abbotsford’s economy is also expected to expand by 3.3% in 2008, while Victoria’s economic growth is forecast to decelerate to 2.7% in 2008. Both Saskatoon and Regina reached 10-year highs in real GDP growth in 2007. Coming off a 4.9% gain last year, second highest in the country, Saskatoon’s economy will expand by a more sustainable 2.7% in 2008, while Regina is also expected to post slower economic growth of 2.6% this year.

After being shut out of the top 10 in the economic growth rankings in 2007, central Canadian CMAs can look forward to only modest improvement in 2008. But looking ahead, the central Canadian CMAs of Toronto, Oshawa, and Kitchener are expected to occupy three of the top five positions in the 2009-12 forecast period.

Toronto, along with Quebec City and Halifax, will post growth of 2.8% in 2008, says the Board’s Outlook. The rise in the Canadian dollar has wreaked havoc on Toronto’s manufacturing sector, but resilient consumer spending has helped the services sector pick up some of the slack.

Although further job losses are expected, Hamilton’s key manufacturing sector is expected to begin a slow recovery in 2008, with output posting a marginal gain. Still, real GDP growth is expected to be limited to 1.9% in 2008, the third straight year in which overall economic growth will fail to reach 2%.

Thanks to strong nickel prices, the outlook for Sudbury’s key mining sector remains healthy. As a result, real GDP is forecast to grow by 1.9% this year, down slightly from a 2.3% gain in 2007.

St. Catharines-Niagara, Windsor and Thunder Bay, had the three weakest metropolitan economies in 2007 as all were hit by a manufacturing slump. These struggles are expected to continue in 2008, with the Outlook showing all three economies generating only modest economic growth this year.

In Quebec, Trois-Rivières is projected to grow by 2.6%, while Sherbrooke and Saguenay will each expand by two% in 2008.

The Atlantic Canadian CMAs of St. John’s and Saint John enjoyed banner years in 2007, with the Newfoundland and Labrador capital ranking first overall by achieving economic growth of 7.7%. In 2008, growth will slip back to 1.9%. All the while, overall growth is forecast to come in at 1.6% in Saint John.