With most of the earnings out of the way, investors will one again be watching economic data for clues of where the financial markets will be headed. Most eyes, on both sides of the border, will be looking to the labour-force reports due out Friday.
Certainly the unemployment rate will be the most significant offering in Canada in what will be a shortened week thanks to Monday’s Simcoe Day holiday in Ontario that closed Toronto markets.
For Canada, International reserves for July and the Ivey Purchasing Managers’ Index will be out on Thursday, but the main focus will be on Friday’s labour-force survey for July.
Economists expect job creating will have slowed somewhat in July as economic growth cools. Most forecasters are calling for job growth of 25,000, down from the average of 43,000 a month in the second quarter, and an unemployment rate of 7.2%, down slightly from June’s 7.3%, and the lowest level since September 2001.
Economist Warren Lovely of CIBC Markets is calling for slightly less job creation — 23,000 — and expects growth to fall to the 20,000 a month level in the second half. July’s report, he says, will be a key data test ahead of the September bank of Canada rate announcement. “While we doubt our call would trigger a significant reaction, the inherent strength of the labour market (along with evidence of shrinking economic slack) would support expectations for a 25bp hike at the Bank’s next meeting,” Lovely says in a report. “There’s still little need for rapidfire rate hikes, however, so a September tightening could prove to be one of the few the Bank delivers in coming months/quarters.”
In the U.S., forecasters expect the jobless to rate to hold at 5.6% for July, despite the fact most think the number of jobs created will jump to 242,000 from 112,000 in June. A higher participation rate is expected to keep the jobless rate where it is.
The labour-force survey comes at the end of a busy week in the U.S. The July ISM manufacturing survey is out Monday, as are domestic auto sales. Personal spending and consumption figures are out Tuesday, with factory orders for June and the ISM non-manufacturing survey due Wednesday. Labour-force stats and consumer credit data complete the week’s offerings on Friday.
While the bulk of companies have already reported their second quarter earnings, there are still some big reports to come.
Among them are: Domtar Inc., WestJet Airlines and Prudential Financial Inc., not to mention Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia on Tuesday; BCE Inc., Biovail Corp. and Microcell Telecommunications Inc. on Wednesday; Alcan Inc., Brascan Corp., Kingsway Financial and Manulife Financial on Thursday; and Air Canada and Cryptologic Inc. on Friday.
Week ahead: Labour force reports claim attention
- By: James Walker
- August 3, 2004 August 3, 2004
- 07:30