Investors should brace themselves for a busy week with inflation and earnings reports expected to dominate the news.

“In the U.S., it will be hard to know where to look in the face of a deluge of data on the economy, and lots of news on corporate earnings as well,” says CIBC World Markets economist Avery Shenfeld.

Shenfeld and other economists said the recent reports about the U.S. economy have turned pessimistic and for the most part, that picture will simply be confirmed in the week ahead’s figures for retailing and industrial output.

The only risk to Treasuries lies in the CPI for June, which is due out on Friday. CIBC is calling for a 0.2% core rise to push the core year-on-year rate to 1.9%, “but much more bearish for bonds would be a 0.3% nudge that allowed core to touch 2%.”

“Given the vagaries of monthly data, that risk is worth noting for those thinking about taking profits on long Treasury positions that have done well this month,” Shenfeld says in a report.

CPI report for June for Canada will also be out Friday. As in the U.S., a low monthly figure dropping out from 12 months ago will help lift the year-on-year core rate, but at 1.8%, it should still be below the Bank of Canada’s 2% target, Shenfeld says. “In any event, what happens to the C$ now looks at least as important as economic data in terms of the timing of a first Bank of Canada rate hike.

“After a CPI spike unsurpassed in the prior 13 years, June’s increase looks to be a more modest 0.1% (unadjusted). The biggest difference: drivers got a bit of a break, as gasoline prices gave back some of May’s surge. The relatively tame monthly move would hold year-over-year inflation at 2.5%.”

Meanwhile, healthy figures for May manufacturing, out on Thursday, and merchandise trade on Wednesday, the latter helped by high energy prices, will paint a bright picture for second quarter GDP for Canada.

Shenfeld says the market will look past the CPI report. “Markets know to look past the headline and focus in on the core. On that score, our on-consensus call would blunt market reaction, leaving other data to dictate whether the Bank opts for a September or October rate hike.”

In the U.S. retails sales for June will be published on Wednesday, with a slough of reports, including the producer price index, due on Thursday.

On the earnings front, investors will be watching for reports from Intel Corp., the world’s biggest computer chip maker, and health care products giant Johnson & Johnson in the U.S. and media company CanWest Global Communications Corp. and oil producer Nexen Inc. in Canada, among others.